Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c74c9823aab31f977d804e735d0b7342c94a21187eec961107d1969899c4d3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,911$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 31c | 1,859$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.3 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 4c | 1,625$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 865$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 655.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 491.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 440$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 42c | 352.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.57 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 69c | 350$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 36c | 322.37$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 267.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 247$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 32c | 214.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 42c | 204.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 17c | 197.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 157.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 154.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 154.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 13c | 139.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 136.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed No | 65c | 133.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 129$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 57c | 119.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 61c | 108.72$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 37c | 105.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 102.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 43c | 102.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…7325backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 98.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 94.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 89.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 29c | 88.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 87.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 85.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 63c | 85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 37c | 79.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 16c | 76.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 62c | 72.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 28c | 72.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 58c | 70.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 52c | 65.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 62c | 58.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 45c | 57.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 53.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 50.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…bdbabacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 43.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…ca54backed No | 64c | 30.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 29.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…0693backed Yes | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.