Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fe577305c1cfa3fdd482c1c4330165e4d111ead94da8a489591e4c4c2d2ebe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 0c | 8,075$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 0c | 4,939$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 8c | 2,298$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.05 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 10c | 1,631$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.61 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…ca06backed No | 78c | 1,435$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 783.82$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 763.38$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 17c | 759.46$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.16 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 52c | 692.81$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.74 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed No | 2c | 677.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 50c | 577.41$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.1 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 30c | 576.2$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.51 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 62c | 568.78$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 42c | 479.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.22 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 28c | 451$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.04 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 57c | 359.98$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.39 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 353.71$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4d…5b7bbacked Yes | 33c | 344.26$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 322$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…7765backed Yes | 22c | 287.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.98 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 62c | 285.35$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.56 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 281.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 261.06$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 29c | 254.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.76 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 22c | 251.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.13 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 27c | 243.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.68 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 71c | 239.05$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.24 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 9c | 231.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 38c | 216.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 203.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.48 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…c728backed Yes | 25c | 196.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 28c | 167.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.28 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 74c | 159.71$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.78 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 26c | 149.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d8…7140backed Yes | 30c | 139.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +232.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed No | 73c | 135.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked No | 10c | 132.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 113.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 19c | 111.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 110.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 28c | 109.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked No | 37c | 108.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 71c | 108.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 76c | 103.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 69c | 98.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 95.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 29c | 95.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 19c | 95.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 30c | 94.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.45 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 16c | 91.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…d85cbacked No | 76c | 90.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 33c | 89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 44c | 86.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 34c | 84.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 34c | 82.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 48c | 80.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 76.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 28c | 75.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…3e9dbacked Yes | 32c | 73.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…c9eebacked Yes | 65c | 71.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 27c | 70.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 26c | 70.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 50c | 63.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5978…a870backed No | 72c | 62.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…3ae7backed Yes | 33c | 55.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…c1d9backed No | 70c | 55.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…047ebacked No | 73c | 53.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…49dcbacked Yes | 37c | 51.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 73c | 50.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95eb…ca1fbacked Yes | 26c | 50.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +286.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…67d8backed Yes | 22c | 50.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked No | 70c | 48.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 71c | 46.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…0353backed No | 73c | 46.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 26c | 42.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 48c | 39.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 38.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 28c | 38.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…8367backed No | 76c | 37.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 29c | 37.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 38c | 37.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 33c | 37.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…bfe7backed No | 74c | 36.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Yes | 31c | 32.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 48c | 31.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 70c | 29.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5426…67c0backed No | 75c | 28.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2c…0b53backed No | 71c | 28.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C or below on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.