Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x575c92577fcaf011f52af57a32d755fcac9ea5bf18fea3d28b608bbcf5e082ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 3,185$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 6c | 2,106$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.78 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 2,080$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,401$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,360$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 67c | 1,317$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.63 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 35c | 1,095$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 19c | 1,050$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.15 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 10c | 957.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 8c | 916.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 773.4$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 32c | 574.15$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.73 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 507.52$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.84 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 11c | 506.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 13c | 492.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 479.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 58c | 440.06$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.49 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 9c | 432.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…ce93backed Yes | 51c | 376.42$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 321.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…bc27backed Yes | 15c | 312.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 31c | 311.61$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 56c | 274.15$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.09 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe58a…336ebacked Yes | 9c | 249.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 40c | 219.55$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 52c | 215.49$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 204.32$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…5eefbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 61c | 181.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 53c | 178.37$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 60c | 177.16$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 8c | 174.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 21c | 173.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…bcc3backed Yes | 57c | 166.65$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 58c | 166.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 60c | 161.25$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 29c | 157.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23e…2623backed No | 49c | 151.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 54c | 150.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 59c | 149.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 43c | 147.25$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 141.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 49c | 141.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 11c | 132.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…b4f0backed Yes | 41c | 128.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 56c | 117.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 50c | 113.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 113.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 55c | 113.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 109.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 45c | 107.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 26c | 106.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 37c | 102.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 69c | 98.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…2dffbacked Yes | 29c | 96.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664e…3c32backed No | 64c | 94.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 44c | 94.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 56c | 93.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 88.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…6293backed Yes | 58c | 82.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…7561backed Yes | 64c | 80.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 49c | 78.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 64c | 77.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 36c | 76.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb71…8a01backed Yes | 55c | 72.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e95…557cbacked Yes | 61c | 70.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 50c | 70.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 69.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 33c | 69.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa2…8d47backed No | 39c | 67.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 44c | 67.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 56c | 65.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…c9eebacked Yes | 59c | 63.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…d278backed Yes | 44c | 61.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31f4…be2abacked No | 48c | 59.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 48c | 59.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 44c | 58.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 56.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 35c | 54.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 58c | 51.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…49dcbacked Yes | 37c | 50.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…27acbacked No | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x932a…317abacked Yes | 75c | 49.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 52c | 46.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 44.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383c…cb10backed Yes | 43c | 43.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 34c | 43.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…4329backed Yes | 46c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 34c | 39.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 63c | 38.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C or below on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.