MLB · resolved market
Marlins vs. Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x800a127da86c12b365f1364b423fc49760c616cebf150a7ed8f099cfdd22a817
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marlinsof Marlins, Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Marlins | 35c | 1,599$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.24 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cubs | 12c | 1,583$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.97 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37c…164ebacked Cubs | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…4d99backed Marlins | 33c | 1,471$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.57 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Marlins | 32c | 1,266$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.06 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Marlins | 65c | 969.25$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.24 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins | 33c | 749.34$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.06 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Cubs | 8c | 624.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Cubs | 67c | 580.6$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Marlins | 33c | 579.97$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.58 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Marlins | 36c | 544.45$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.47 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cubs | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4142…1853backed Cubs | 67c | 373.26$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.76 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cubs | 68c | 367.65$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Cubs | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cubs | 46c | 300.27$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Marlins | 70c | 292.5$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Cubs | 35c | 227.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Cubs | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Cubs | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Cubs | 67c | 199.97$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.98 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…a4f4backed Cubs | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins | 67c | 152$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Marlins | 35c | 128.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Cubs | 21c | 124.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Cubs | 30c | 118.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Marlins | 65c | 111.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Cubs | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Cubs | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Cubs | 67c | 97.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Cubs | 61c | 86.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cubs | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Cubs | 30c | 68.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…27ddbacked Marlins | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cubs | 67c | 55.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…3658backed Marlins | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cubs | 69c | 51.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…667abacked Cubs | 67c | 50.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…42bfbacked Marlins | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cubs | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Marlins | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Cubs | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 53.9%117 W · 100 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…f587backed Marlins | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…374cbacked Marlins | 33c | 42.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Marlins | 39c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…63bcbacked Cubs | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Marlins | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Cubs | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2a…2fe6backed Cubs | 66c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…ee01backed Marlins | 34c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…9a0ebacked Cubs | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 708 | 41.4%293 W · 415 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cubs | 67c | 32.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Cubs | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Cubs | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cubs | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781a…2fa0backed Cubs | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…b073backed Cubs | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Marlins | 77c | 21.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Cubs | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.