Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x816f9d2c98740b8b77869ac6c48a2cb5ae791a5ca350b616445826c2ede6a95c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 1,326$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 782.84$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 5c | 625.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 540.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 13c | 489.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 480$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 5c | 437.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 422.11$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.11 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 4c | 404.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 7c | 387.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 23c | 362$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 28c | 360.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 78c | 350$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 349.49$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 339.23$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 77c | 310$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 28c | 302.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 292.5$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 261.97$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 6c | 230.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 28c | 209.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 74c | 198.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 23c | 190.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 28c | 190$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 29c | 179.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 29c | 174.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 168.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 23c | 145.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 28c | 133.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 133.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 71c | 132.01$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 111.29$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 23c | 109.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 106.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 102$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 30c | 101.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 94.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 73c | 92.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 13c | 91.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 21c | 81.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 74c | 81.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 19c | 77.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 22c | 75.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 64.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 78c | 60.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 56.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c70…f74dbacked Yes | 26c | 56.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 51.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…dfa9backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 21c | 48.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 72c | 45.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e13…f6b6backed Yes | 29c | 45.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 29c | 39.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 80c | 36.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…e428backed Yes | 30c | 34.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 30.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed No | 71c | 30.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 71c | 28.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 77c | 25.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 77c | 24.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 73c | 22.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 18.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 15.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…825dbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.