Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f8cdad1e9cce7e25b750b2e80117ebe6ea112dfd8607fa8b2527d9986026b45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 74c | 1,838$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.04 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 1,123$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 45c | 879.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.29 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 878.97$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.11 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 873.99$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.86 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 9c | 644.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 75c | 590.66$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.95 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 561$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 38c | 546.85$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.13 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 361.02$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.05 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 59c | 357.17$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.69 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 324.01$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.96 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 34c | 316.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.28 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 307.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 51c | 297.53$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.74 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 265.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 249.22$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 233.32$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 78c | 225.77$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.29 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 45c | 225$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 217$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 202.62$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 169.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 38c | 167.32$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 45c | 164.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 61c | 157.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.78 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 152.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 151.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 145.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 145$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 54c | 143.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5606…9bd7backed No | 47c | 142.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 42c | 139.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 135.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 50c | 129$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 44c | 119.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 22c | 109.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 105.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 104.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 36c | 103.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 103$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…6713backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 99.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 76c | 99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 25c | 96.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 26c | 96.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 53c | 94.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 50c | 90.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 28c | 85.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 54c | 84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 57c | 83.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 43c | 76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 64c | 69.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 68.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 56c | 68.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 38c | 66.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 48c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 38c | 64.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 62.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 36c | 60.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…4b7fbacked Yes | 26c | 59.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 55c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 56.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 27c | 56.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 52.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 52.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 47c | 49.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 23c | 49.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 55c | 47.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 47.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 47.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 42c | 47.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 65c | 46.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 46c | 43.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 55c | 43.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 41c | 41.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 41.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 51c | 41.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 67c | 38.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 55c | 37.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 42c | 33.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 47c | 33.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.