Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f4245616ebf7acf1c90345ce37d2f23722524d92c8c07ac275b7c0a2058d2f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,828$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 23c | 1,717$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.03 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 1,541$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.5 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 1,455$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 1,337$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 882.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 687.05$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 680.84$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 548.98$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 59c | 472.46$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.98 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 49c | 461.31$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.63 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 437$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 398.63$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 74c | 373.67$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 75c | 344.31$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 21c | 332.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 79c | 319.72$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 76c | 315.43$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 313$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 292$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 20c | 286.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 72c | 277.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 66c | 253.17$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.03 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 252$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 60c | 250$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 50c | 248.17$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.73 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 65c | 242.08$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 65c | 234.97$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.98 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 30c | 223.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.8 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 70c | 221.57$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 221.06$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 31c | 183.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 176$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 161.19$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 159.52$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 34c | 159.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 34c | 145.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 53c | 145.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…0d93backed No | 76c | 139.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 79c | 137.65$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 135.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 132.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 131$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 22c | 130.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf0…0901backed No | 73c | 130.51$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…af35backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 75c | 122$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 19c | 104.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 76c | 95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 27c | 91.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 86.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…6713backed No | 41c | 85.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 43c | 83.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 40c | 82.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 61c | 82.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 25c | 80.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 77c | 76.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 35c | 76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…a608backed No | 77c | 75.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 38c | 74.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 18c | 71.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701d…d115backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 67.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 65.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 30c | 65.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed6…2322backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 26c | 60.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 73c | 59.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 79c | 59.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 59c | 57.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed No | 65c | 54.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 54.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 50.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aef…26f6backed No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 43c | 47.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 61c | 47.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 34c | 46.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 38c | 45.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…4666backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 26c | 42.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 41c | 42.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.