MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x817c41c2e81c09fc8bea6d4bee5ba913762510808f7a3b238cdd2b5e7a435442
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 79c | 13,473$10,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,875.59 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 16c | 12,570$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 47c | 5,767$2,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,028.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 3,100$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Houston Astros | 37c | 2,728$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.73 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 2,202$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.26 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 1,847$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.08 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 36c | 1,168$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.25 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…fcd1backed Houston Astros | 39c | 1,034$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 968.84$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.37 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 758.66$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.54 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 758.66$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.54 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Houston Astros | 36c | 719.2$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.48 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 718.75$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Houston Astros | 38c | 519.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.63 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Houston Astros | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 400.07$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.04 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 379.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.68 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 369.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.9 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 293$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.52 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Miami Marlins | 21c | 290$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 289$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.18 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 273.76$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.73 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 76c | 269$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Houston Astros | 42c | 254.42$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.58 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Miami Marlins | 20c | 236.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 21c | 231$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Houston Astros | 36c | 227$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.28 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 171.39$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6458…2a3bbacked Houston Astros | 36c | 163.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.44 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…1870backed Houston Astros | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 136.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…bcf2backed Houston Astros | 38c | 127.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 70c | 121.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Miami Marlins | 21c | 113.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 83.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 83.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros | 35c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Houston Astros | 80c | 51.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Miami Marlins | 27c | 51.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…fd02backed Miami Marlins | 26c | 49.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed Houston Astros | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Houston Astros | 37c | 40.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…dccdbacked Houston Astros | 78c | 38.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Houston Astros | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Houston Astros | 46c | 26.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Houston Astros | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Houston Astros | 78c | 19.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.