TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Miami Marlins, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$306,307
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$300,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,307 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Miami Marlins8c123,910$10,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,153.641,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Miami Marlins47c31,960$14,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,903.8377053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Miami Marlins48c17,512$8,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,4061,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros73c17,322$12,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,739.712,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa084…bb99backed Houston Astros53c13,200$6,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,20410748.6%52 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Houston Astros52c11,423$5,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,483.23966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+38.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros53c8,233$4,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,869.325,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Miami Marlins43c7,000$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0109035.6%32 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros52c5,877$3,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,793.343,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros66c5,303$3,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.664,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Miami Marlins0c4,667$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.340629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Miami Marlins42c4,515$1,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.511154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Miami Marlins48c3,977$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.0457548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins2c3,877$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.566,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6193…5b80backed Houston Astros58c3,512$2,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.3723146.8%108 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Miami Marlins10c3,114$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.8285645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e2…4b92backed Miami Marlins26c3,107$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81012244.3%54 W · 68 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Miami Marlins47c2,600$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22224639%96 W · 150 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins9c2,363$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.324,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd942…f9d3backed Miami Marlins43c2,260$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.2312152.9%64 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f03…766dbacked Houston Astros53c2,217$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.984141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b62…5cc8backed Houston Astros57c2,000$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.472065%13 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Houston Astros52c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72075248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Houston Astros52c1,240$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.822,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Houston Astros53c1,210$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.989153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins26c1,074$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.482,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1713…1986backed Miami Marlins47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002045%9 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Houston Astros54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4601,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Miami Marlins9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9017417.2%30 W · 144 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Miami Marlins16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16032850.3%165 W · 163 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked Houston Astros52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48029046.6%135 W · 155 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Houston Astros80c946.6$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.3211759%69 W · 48 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Houston Astros53c943.4$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.498149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Miami Marlins9c819.5$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7626618.4%49 W · 217 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x537a…7447backed Miami Marlins9c811$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5510625.5%27 W · 79 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Houston Astros59c809.83$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.961,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb81…1f15backed Houston Astros52c800$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38412448.4%60 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros54c786$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.564,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49e…e5e8backed Miami Marlins48c781.25$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3759545.3%43 W · 52 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros61c727.58$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.8212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ed…0a9fbacked Miami Marlins43c723.48$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.1410145.5%46 W · 55 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Houston Astros80c715$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.3880159.2%474 W · 327 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c6…3dd2backed Miami Marlins43c697.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007142.3%30 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros53c676.99$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.716,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Miami Marlins6c638.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4882636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Miami Marlins48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Miami Marlins4c620.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1797944.4%435 W · 544 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c57…e81abacked Miami Marlins19c552.63$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros75c529.02$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.678,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa64…9dcdbacked Miami Marlins48c520.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503458.8%20 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4bb…22a9backed Miami Marlins10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Houston Astros52c499.11$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.0730647.4%145 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Houston Astros52c492.59$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.4432850%164 W · 164 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Houston Astros55c485.49$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.471,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2002…a75ebacked Houston Astros61c481.55$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.5315751.6%81 W · 76 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Miami Marlins28c480.65$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6295045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins8c452.88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.51,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Houston Astros53c440.84$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.7295252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Miami Marlins16c437.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7012333.3%41 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f8b…37c8backed Miami Marlins65c436.11$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.479570.5%67 W · 28 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6637…6700backed Miami Marlins25c435.13$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1071258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+77.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Miami Marlins47c421.28$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19837052.2%193 W · 177 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Houston Astros39c420.12$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.0514235.9%51 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Houston Astros52c389.98$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.191,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros63c378.53$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.398,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23e…e4a3backed Houston Astros53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3611750.4%59 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0570…16c9backed Miami Marlins5c335.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6810642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins6c327$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.396,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dea…5e23backed Houston Astros53c280.68$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.6142550.1%213 W · 212 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39c2…dc0bbacked Houston Astros54c276.4$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.47354.8%40 W · 33 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae34…3a8abacked Houston Astros80c274$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.835668.8%245 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Miami Marlins10c273.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.292,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Miami Marlins47c270$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.91,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed Houston Astros57c268.68$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2748660.5%294 W · 192 L+40.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Houston Astros55c251.92$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.621,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd991…faeabacked Miami Marlins48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040449.3%199 W · 205 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Miami Marlins48c245$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.650647%238 W · 268 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5dbe…ea98backed Miami Marlins65c233.04$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.488968.5%61 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Miami Marlins48c218.75$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10567449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Houston Astros54c215.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.3651547%242 W · 273 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Miami Marlins47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011354%61 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa384…3c9fbacked Miami Marlins48c212$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7628147.7%134 W · 147 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b22…9431backed Miami Marlins48c210$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.87360.3%44 W · 29 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd3…0e24backed Miami Marlins48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Houston Astros54c204.35$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.951,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Miami Marlins48c204.08$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9648147%226 W · 255 L-31.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30d9…2ab9backed Miami Marlins47c203$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.41425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x893f…982bbacked Houston Astros54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+64.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Houston Astros53c198$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.061,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Houston Astros79c192$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8579147.9%379 W · 412 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Miami Marlins7c184.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9960043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc6…1a49backed Miami Marlins33c163.13$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3516842.3%71 W · 97 L-10.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Houston Astros68c138$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8134658.1%201 W · 145 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Houston Astros62c133.97$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7657758.1%335 W · 242 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Miami Marlins47c130$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.11,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e3…c60fbacked Miami Marlins12c127.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.341250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x202b…bd32backed Miami Marlins12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157643.4%33 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c49…1862backed Miami Marlins48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6035353.8%190 W · 163 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc6…afa2backed Miami Marlins48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6034644.8%155 W · 191 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.