MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc28be30c2be1a2ec2af9ceef80fde36cff48b06f1c488ec19ee7258bd3c7b3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 55c | 12,450$6,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,617.94 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 4,052$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.72 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…eabbbacked Under | 46c | 3,300$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 45c | 3,200$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 54c | 1,887$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.01 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 54c | 1,653$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.91 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 1,535$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 1,198$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.1 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 1,024$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.28 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 53c | 936$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.92 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…ca0ebacked Over | 57c | 912.52$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.31 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 907.75$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 45c | 862.78$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.03 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 716.6$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 33c | 594$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.38 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 500$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.08 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 46c | 492.61$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.6 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 462.96$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.96 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Over | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Under | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 393.56$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 375$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 55c | 362$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 45c | 230.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 226.68$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 55c | 182.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.69 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 54c | 165.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 45c | 156.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 132.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 46c | 99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 92.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 46c | 81.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 48c | 55.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 46c | 51.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…6963backed Over | 55c | 49.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 57c | 47.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9169…0359backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 42.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 46c | 40.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f0…b63fbacked Under | 47c | 40.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Under | 44c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Under | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Under | 45c | 25.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 60c | 24.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 47c | 22.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 56c | 21.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.