F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81af0d2b9fa02569edd35bb56dc054b45249db3f64428fad0b3255f3f91b17bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,956$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 79c | 1,781$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.86 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,254$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.35 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…55d1backed Yes | 7c | 986.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5de…cabebacked Yes | 19c | 642.35$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 80c | 562.03$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.47 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 28c | 510.08$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.48 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 17c | 402.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed No | 69c | 400$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 12c | 398$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…dc7ebacked Yes | 19c | 373$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…3b95backed Yes | 13c | 370.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 17c | 360.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 18c | 286.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…f3aabacked Yes | 20c | 241.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…0dabbacked Yes | 34c | 235.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0c…7f26backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f0…299cbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c6…74d4backed Yes | 16c | 155.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 28c | 134.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 13c | 131$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 65c | 123.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 15c | 109.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…c7c8backed Yes | 24c | 84.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…7138backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 75c | 79.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c3…3a41backed Yes | 17c | 65.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 19c | 58.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ae…18a2backed Yes | 25c | 57.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb975…258dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…cfaabacked No | 64c | 46.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 70c | 32.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…cb96backed No | 66c | 31.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.