F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73a477b5c5b0c3a8b99ce0c7e474c26c13c229699e52dce5dce7066ccc729783
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 74c | 686.95$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.34 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a29…90efbacked No | 32c | 670.67$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 71c | 469.48$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked No | 25c | 337.06$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +9.1wins | +0.35per pick | 38cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 29c | 312.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed No | 27c | 162$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 63c | 140.85$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 27c | 134.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c6…74d4backed Yes | 71c | 104.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 27c | 102.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 32c | 98.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 73c | 96.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 15c | 88.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2785…ce75backed No | 36c | 76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…c91dbacked Yes | 73c | 68.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…4ba3backed Yes | 74c | 66.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35e…0440backed No | 32c | 63.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Yes | 69c | 58.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 28c | 49.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Yes | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…3e56backed Yes | 66c | 38.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe357…50cfbacked Yes | 65c | 30.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…aaa3backed No | 34c | 29.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…bf75backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b2…abf1backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f93…af7abacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…43a3backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 66c | 16.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 73c | 14.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.