F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94d851c1136ee9322d7cdabddcdfad0c5c169e51f73504dbfd7b5eabe094f100
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…3b1abacked No | 77c | 899.96$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.99 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…d35ebacked Yes | 29c | 636$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…0dedbacked Yes | 18c | 599.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Yes | 8c | 573.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 80c | 518.09$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.79 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…9ba9backed Yes | 23c | 440$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…64c7backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 31c | 308.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 23c | 300.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 21c | 283.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked No | 59c | 217.92$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbc…90d5backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed No | 79c | 190.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed No | 64c | 187.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 22c | 183.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949c…ab2cbacked Yes | 22c | 134.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 74c | 129.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 16c | 110.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 34c | 100.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…2a61backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…7a32backed Yes | 40c | 97.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 75c | 83.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 71c | 73.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 77c | 68.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…9be0backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 64c | 54.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 77c | 51.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…3e56backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 49c | 48.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 80c | 44.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…43a3backed No | 76c | 39.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…7cd9backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130d…ab10backed Yes | 53c | 26.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…e7f8backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.