MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82018b39fd4f716e6c5beb71837016bd235192c27f40ba1d69edee7958126aa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 68c | 51,173$34,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,518.08 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 46,577$15,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,020.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 4,568$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 1,725$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,387$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.15 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5e…185ebacked Under | 75c | 1,311$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 56c | 1,268$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.11 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 73c | 1,003$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 45c | 778$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 31c | 766.96$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.85 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 586.14$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.98 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 44c | 568$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.92 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 485.05$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 56c | 430$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.2 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 57c | 422.04$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.48 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 55c | 396$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 339.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.62 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 250.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 43c | 239$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.77 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 15c | 192$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 44c | 182.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 150.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 60c | 143.58$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 87.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 33c | 85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 83.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 55c | 69.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 54c | 63.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 55c | 60.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 37c | 58.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 45c | 49.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 43c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 43c | 43.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 55c | 33.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 54c | 28.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…1068backed Under | 54c | 19.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami MarlinsLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.