MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c090c32269139187c1e3d1819e209f5c50a20c4232194d4dfafd2fa92fee131
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $189,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 96,911$40,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,884.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 62,694$36,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,302.13 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 56,932$24,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,313.64 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 37,677$21,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,948.04 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 19,090$10,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,208.69 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 18,454$10,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,933.78 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 17,788$7,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,440.52 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 9,144$5,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,886.02 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 3,090$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.2 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 1,889$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.85 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 1,531$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 1,051$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.11 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 964.33$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.69 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 814.5$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.09 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 566.57$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.29 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 549.43$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.77 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 12c | 492.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 400.36$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.15 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 395.21$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.01 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 359$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.78 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 278.65$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef04…f6e3backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 275.86$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 261.91$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 258.43$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.96 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 250.44$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 195$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 186.19$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 172.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 27c | 168.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 130.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 754 | 53.2%401 W · 353 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…d412backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 117.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 116$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 109.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Miami Marlins | 27c | 103.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 102.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Los Angeles Angels | 74c | 99.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 97.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 91.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 79.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b5…2a6cbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…c5b9backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 41.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 41.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 246 | 44.7%110 W · 136 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 32.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 28.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 21.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Los Angeles Angels | 71c | 19.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 18.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 17.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami MarlinsLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.