TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Heroic vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heroicof Heroic, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$324,345
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$351,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $324,345 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Virtus.pro40c80,200$32,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,106.711,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Heroic60c55,528$33,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,212.3428748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Heroic61c16,806$10,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,554.4433746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Virtus.pro37c13,071$4,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,810.3271454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x65b9…ff15backed Heroic62c9,167$5,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,483.591758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Heroic62c7,502$4,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,855.7696557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro37c7,093$2,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,614.82,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Heroic61c6,000$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,340.0115544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Heroic58c6,000$3,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.992259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+35.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Virtus.pro39c5,883$2,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,274.0222848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Virtus.pro39c5,486$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.7729042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Heroic61c5,136$3,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,991.2324153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Heroic55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.9922643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Virtus.pro38c4,814$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.3245139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Heroic63c4,799$3,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.921,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Heroic62c4,674$2,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.1227153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Heroic63c4,227$2,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.4951751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c75…1b0dbacked Virtus.pro39c4,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.991747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4bf8…2f4abacked Virtus.pro1c4,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445034%17 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Virtus.pro39c3,836$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.9769644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Virtus.pro33c3,749$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.0447046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Virtus.pro45c3,699$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.29630.2%29 W · 67 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Heroic58c3,377$1,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.4924251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Virtus.pro33c3,071$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.5541242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Heroic61c2,850$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.3225248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Heroic67c2,746$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.8943049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Virtus.pro40c2,518$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.9452243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Virtus.pro39c2,470$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.489741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic57c2,466$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.8689440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Heroic65c2,425$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.51,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Virtus.pro39c2,395$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.0530336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Heroic56c2,370$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.9712560%75 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Heroic63c2,327$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.9445046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Virtus.pro43c2,215$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.2139042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic65c2,154$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.671,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Heroic62c2,048$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.3236547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Heroic55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90025147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Heroic61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78015848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Heroic70c1,962$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.5845061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Virtus.pro33c1,928$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.451,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b3…f473backed Heroic63c1,797$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.051560%9 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Virtus.pro33c1,736$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.4130647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Virtus.pro38c1,733$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.8918739%73 W · 114 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Heroic58c1,705$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.7218954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Virtus.pro37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55560646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Heroic59c1,500$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.9819742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Virtus.pro38c1,470$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.361553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Heroic61c1,444$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.3156955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Virtus.pro38c1,441$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.7143344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Virtus.pro36c1,328$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.1567043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Heroic62c1,250$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47541351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Heroic79c1,249$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.6935062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Virtus.pro39c1,223$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.827750.6%39 W · 38 L-9.7wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1193…d9c4backed Virtus.pro36c1,199$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.627859%46 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Virtus.pro45c1,196$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.7135951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Virtus.pro45c1,131$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.6234544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro34c1,015$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.131,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Heroic62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Virtus.pro38c988.14$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.49837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb126…9848backed Heroic59c942.34$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.361729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaaa4…865cbacked Heroic62c933.38$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.036552.3%34 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Heroic63c931.24$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.5611154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Virtus.pro32c896.74$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.7838855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x115f…e217backed Virtus.pro45c870.14$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.95747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…30afbacked Virtus.pro42c850.47$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.21573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+48.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Heroic66c807.11$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.4280443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Virtus.pro38c760.11$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.848946.1%41 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Virtus.pro33c753.91$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.3625246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d4…d2f2backed Virtus.pro40c753.31$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.04812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick33cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd439…21d3backed Heroic61c728.72$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.231644.9%142 W · 174 L-18.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Heroic56c725.62$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.6956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Virtus.pro26c724.84$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.314661%89 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9031…554bbacked Heroic79c722.88$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.4410262.7%64 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Virtus.pro41c702.66$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.7161745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Virtus.pro2c658.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1837811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Virtus.pro30c638.67$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.614747.6%70 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Heroic66c628.98$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.360552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Virtus.pro42c627$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.3485851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Virtus.pro40c623.37$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.3533644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Heroic70c589.19$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.561,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Virtus.pro32c581.85$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5850832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde1f…d634backed Virtus.pro25c576.68$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.242725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Heroic62c530$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.433541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Virtus.pro6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Virtus.pro30c488.98$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.831,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Virtus.pro32c449.63$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8896245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Virtus.pro13c440.97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5117340.5%70 W · 103 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83d1…555dbacked Heroic58c436.31$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.255154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc82b…4a75backed Virtus.pro3c414.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce7a…fef0backed Virtus.pro5c405.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4419145.5%87 W · 104 L+13.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Heroic62c376.45$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.7655147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Virtus.pro38c371.88$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5955751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Virtus.pro41c371.74$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.4164744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6148…7e43backed Virtus.pro33c365.19$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.031346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Virtus.pro38c362.96$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.744535.6%16 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Heroic65c354.89$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.321,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Virtus.pro34c331.26$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0596645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad8f…6b52backed Virtus.pro39c328.22$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.011752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Heroic62c315.23$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.7929347.4%139 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Heroic63c308.08$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.4621650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.