TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Heroic vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heroicof Heroic, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$618,353
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$722,363

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $618,353 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Virtus.pro43c201,796$86,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,104.1528748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Virtus.pro44c76,654$33,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,429.711,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Heroic62c45,638$28,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,332.287152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Heroic56c40,000$22,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,6004940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Heroic56c36,447$20,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,098.9112560%75 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Heroic64c31,737$20,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,358.1771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Heroic58c24,897$14,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,493.5389741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Virtus.pro43c19,469$8,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,371.6527153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Heroic57c17,748$10,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,614.1622848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Heroic57c15,587$8,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,702.542650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Heroic57c15,000$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,45029042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Heroic62c13,079$8,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,924.191,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Heroic58c11,127$6,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,667.3541056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Virtus.pro43c9,980$4,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,291.2325248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Heroic58c9,748$5,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,094.445139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Heroic57c9,563$5,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,097.181,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Virtus.pro43c9,404$4,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,043.5556955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Virtus.pro43c9,341$4,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,056.9734544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Heroic58c8,509$4,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,615.4143049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fac…1feebacked Heroic58c8,492$4,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,567.972445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-26.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Heroic57c7,921$4,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,435.1541944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Heroic58c7,869$4,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,270.896557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Heroic58c7,519$4,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,173.5422643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Heroic58c7,044$4,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,982.8255751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic58c7,030$4,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,936.671,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic56c7,000$3,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,06089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Virtus.pro44c6,933$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,050.4229348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed Heroic77c6,549$5,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.6113068.5%89 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Virtus.pro43c6,000$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,579.9915544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Virtus.pro12c5,649$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.4450832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Heroic57c5,649$3,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,447.581,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65b9…ff15backed Heroic58c5,637$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,386.431758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Heroic78c5,414$4,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.9667043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9031…554bbacked Heroic73c5,200$3,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.1210262.7%64 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Heroic58c5,047$2,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,141.7126843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Heroic57c5,015$2,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,177.691,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Heroic62c4,439$2,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,708.7547046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Heroic57c4,378$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,889.3725549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Virtus.pro43c4,249$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.4441351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Heroic56c4,022$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.6722647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Heroic57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,72069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Virtus.pro44c3,807$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.7118356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed Heroic55c3,703$2,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.815653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Heroic58c3,580$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.5330336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed Virtus.pro45c3,369$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.8539042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heroic77c3,255$2,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.151,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Virtus.pro43c3,098$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.1633541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Virtus.pro39c3,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17025147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c75…1b0dbacked Heroic58c3,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.991747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Heroic57c2,994$1,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.0216248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Heroic55c2,965$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.827143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Virtus.pro45c2,822$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.0236547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Heroic54c2,755$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.195342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Virtus.pro11c2,715$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.561,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic69c2,662$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.431,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Heroic59c2,536$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.0360552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Virtus.pro45c2,535$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.2749455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Virtus.pro45c2,513$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.8380256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Virtus.pro43c2,487$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.4519742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3601…44fbbacked Heroic63c2,346$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.3216954.4%92 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Virtus.pro40c2,085$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.560646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Heroic57c2,074$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.789948.5%48 W · 51 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bf8…2f4abacked Virtus.pro42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8405034%17 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Heroic72c1,955$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.5845061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Virtus.pro21c1,810$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.0533644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Heroic57c1,696$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.1324251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Heroic58c1,689$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.2835062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1193…d9c4backed Heroic63c1,563$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.717859%46 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Heroic58c1,551$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.9156548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Virtus.pro45c1,547$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.2411154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Heroic58c1,393$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.0840051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Heroic64c1,384$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.1334051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d1…555dbacked Virtus.pro39c1,342$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.15154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Virtus.pro10c1,300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13537811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Virtus.pro30c1,295$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.0650347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro7c1,277$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.42,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e11…e1f5backed Heroic60c1,254$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.531662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Virtus.pro51c1,250$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64045046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f73…1b52backed Heroic56c1,250$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Virtus.pro34c1,223$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.357429.7%22 W · 52 L-7.9wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Virtus.pro17c1,058$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.1179341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked Heroic58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42018156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Heroic55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45032441.7%135 W · 189 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7b3…f473backed Virtus.pro50c970$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4851560%9 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Heroic50c942$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47137945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed Virtus.pro44c901.01$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.4510751.4%55 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Virtus.pro9c841.34$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0137018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Virtus.pro18c803.24$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8169132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed Virtus.pro44c800$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35234860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Heroic70c782.36$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.62,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Heroic56c774.99$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34160349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Heroic55c766$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.785851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb05…ed70backed Virtus.pro45c743.85$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.734856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Heroic59c735.49$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.0850749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf7…6d62backed Heroic47c713.52$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.854845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Heroic70c701.43$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.4319458.8%114 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Virtus.pro31c686.48$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8161745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad8f…6b52backed Heroic60c660.26$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.111752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Heroic64c652.69$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2614747.6%70 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb278…3ba6backed Virtus.pro41c642.48$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.331520%3 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-60.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.