TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BNK FEARXof BNK FEARX, Team Secret Whales
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$995,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $995,585 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4337…8882backed Team Secret Whales5c82,086$4,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,473.561,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Team Secret Whales6c55,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.991,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Team Secret Whales2c25,184$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.1943442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16db…ac64backed Team Secret Whales1c25,163$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.1424323%56 W · 187 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e1…d3a6backed Team Secret Whales3c23,139$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.331315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-78.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Team Secret Whales7c23,000$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.9910521%22 W · 83 L-10.5wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-2.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fa8…c667backed Team Secret Whales5c15,166$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.316435.9%23 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed Team Secret Whales0c15,144$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.585833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Team Secret Whales4c14,306$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.0131328.8%90 W · 223 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Team Secret Whales4c13,989$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.211330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Team Secret Whales5c11,058$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.922,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Secret Whales6c11,000$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.891,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8a…5e5cbacked Team Secret Whales1c10,121$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-76.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8383…faa8backed Team Secret Whales4c10,000$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.74812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed Team Secret Whales0c9,994$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9814852%77 W · 71 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Team Secret Whales1c9,991$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5667549%331 W · 344 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Team Secret Whales3c9,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.6344047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x939f…6d5ebacked Team Secret Whales6c8,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008728.7%25 W · 62 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c67…e40ebacked Team Secret Whales0c8,156$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.694843.8%21 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Team Secret Whales4c6,394$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.557945.9%266 W · 313 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8da…a6e6backed Team Secret Whales5c6,086$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.1412839.8%51 W · 77 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Team Secret Whales3c5,667$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16423932.6%78 W · 161 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Team Secret Whales4c5,431$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22014835.1%52 W · 96 L-9.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Team Secret Whales9c5,069$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.318829.8%56 W · 132 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fc2…9c0dbacked Team Secret Whales4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009329%27 W · 66 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b86…1346backed Team Secret Whales1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team Secret Whales0c4,888$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.441,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Team Secret Whales8c4,408$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.6435634.8%124 W · 232 L-19.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa89c…398fbacked Team Secret Whales5c4,000$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.362429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Team Secret Whales4c4,000$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15148440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd8…a879backed Team Secret Whales2c3,774$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5821028.1%59 W · 151 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Team Secret Whales2c3,400$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5121735%76 W · 141 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Team Secret Whales8c3,208$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.7148742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d1…10fdbacked Team Secret Whales3c3,093$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.631010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid+117.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked Team Secret Whales1c3,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e6…b9f9backed Team Secret Whales2c2,988$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8462743.9%275 W · 352 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Team Secret Whales3c2,901$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5216842.9%72 W · 96 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Team Secret Whales4c2,833$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1086827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d7…a861backed Team Secret Whales1c2,741$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309242.4%39 W · 53 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Team Secret Whales2c2,588$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3429927.8%83 W · 216 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0640…1cd6backed Team Secret Whales8c2,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014935.6%53 W · 96 L-12.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1ce…3b06backed Team Secret Whales0c2,399$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.951650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+58%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Team Secret Whales4c2,300$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4212763%80 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Secret Whales3c2,183$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.251,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Team Secret Whales5c2,123$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047953.2%255 W · 224 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Team Secret Whales6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12024240.9%99 W · 143 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Team Secret Whales4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010441.3%43 W · 61 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Secret Whales5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003345.5%15 W · 18 L+8.1wins+0.25per pick21cpaid+158.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7181…8dc7backed Team Secret Whales2c1,997$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302825%7 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf775…a5b3backed Team Secret Whales1c1,990$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671d…c1c6backed Team Secret Whales2c1,901$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…a754backed Team Secret Whales5c1,895$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10235323.2%82 W · 271 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Team Secret Whales4c1,861$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3699338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Team Secret Whales4c1,784$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.751346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a45…172abacked Team Secret Whales8c1,674$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Team Secret Whales1c1,673$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1956432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Team Secret Whales8c1,630$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.464243%276 W · 366 L-27.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e58…7803backed Team Secret Whales3c1,446$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-56%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Team Secret Whales3c1,347$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.616530.8%20 W · 45 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed Team Secret Whales5c1,337$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8427535.3%97 W · 178 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ad…2e56backed Team Secret Whales1c1,302$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd37…e117backed Team Secret Whales3c1,214$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387544%33 W · 42 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc50b…1fd9backed Team Secret Whales1c1,193$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19f2…f4a1backed Team Secret Whales2c1,161$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-49.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Team Secret Whales2c1,060$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0267931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Secret Whales4c1,053$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4075630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a70…18f0backed Team Secret Whales6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017542.3%74 W · 101 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Team Secret Whales4c1,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710728%30 W · 77 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Team Secret Whales4c999.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3734244.7%153 W · 189 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Team Secret Whales3c952.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.661,05323.4%246 W · 807 L-76.9wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0510…4c9cbacked Team Secret Whales2c937.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf61a…5943backed Team Secret Whales4c923.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3613418.7%25 W · 109 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2681…cabdbacked Team Secret Whales3c891.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked Team Secret Whales6c833$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.984854.2%26 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2090…7584backed Team Secret Whales6c800$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Team Secret Whales4c775.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5820035%70 W · 130 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51c7…7a96backed Team Secret Whales2c752.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked Team Secret Whales7c733.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.856847.1%32 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8de…ed08backed Team Secret Whales4c668.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.612220.5%25 W · 97 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd20f…1e5dbacked Team Secret Whales5c620.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Team Secret Whales4c600$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5658420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1de6…7b51backed Team Secret Whales6c595.29$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.952254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13b5…7e1cbacked Team Secret Whales3c579.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510766.4%71 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Team Secret Whales5c541.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked Team Secret Whales4c529.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010616%17 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba16…f37cbacked Team Secret Whales4c526.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7809…64ccbacked Team Secret Whales7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3517431%54 W · 120 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed Team Secret Whales7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359337.6%35 W · 58 L+12.5wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+92.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4155backed Team Secret Whales6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030243%130 W · 172 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd12b…43a9backed Team Secret Whales4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202850%14 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511a…68bebacked Team Secret Whales4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.56045%27 W · 33 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e3…f2c9backed Team Secret Whales6c450$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5559…2bd2backed Team Secret Whales4c449.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021141.2%87 W · 124 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e2e…c9cbbacked Team Secret Whales3c443.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1314742.2%62 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b1…2f66backed Team Secret Whales5c434.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e08…bebfbacked Team Secret Whales8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6eb…9c8cbacked Team Secret Whales5c386.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82c0…e39cbacked Team Secret Whales4c335.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x383d…87eabacked Team Secret Whales6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011042.7%47 W · 63 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Secret Whales3c330.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.032,90338.5%1,119 W · 1,784 L-117.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.