NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x825fa14d45df5e45b43eb85afda75a0e48018068ad49e9a9e0d9f17fe84abc65

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,778
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,778 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	50c	8,324$4,162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,161.75	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Over	50c	7,951$3,976 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,975.5	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Under	52c	4,550$2,366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,366.08	158	55.7%88 W · 70 L	-9.8wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over	55c	2,508$1,369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,138.6	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Over	55c	1,830$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$829.91	274	43.1%118 W · 156 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	50c	1,800$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	48c	1,578$757 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$820.55	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Under	53c	1,500$795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795	415	53.3%221 W · 194 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	48c	843.52$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.33	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	43c	745.73$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$427.98	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Over	49c	400$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204	193	51.8%100 W · 93 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	49c	400$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	51c	398$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.93	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over	48c	366.28$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.47	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	51c	352$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.52	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under	46c	304$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.84	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	46c	257.7$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.54	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2331…684dbacked Over	50c	240$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Under	46c	200$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	184	53.3%98 W · 86 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	357	39.8%142 W · 215 L	-25.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x15a3…718ebacked Under	52c	199.99$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	113	51.3%58 W · 55 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Under	50c	199.71$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e0…22d2backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-2.8wins	-0.18per pick	58cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Under	54c	186.3$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	280	46.8%131 W · 149 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	52c	165$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.55	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over	49c	117.63$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.99	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	55c	117.43$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.59	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	477	38.2%182 W · 295 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Under	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Over	48c	99.19$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.58	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Under	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ed…f28dbacked Over	53c	88.87$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.87	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ace…07c7backed Over	48c	83.33$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.33	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-3.1wins	-0.19per pick	51cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	47c	79.61$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.56	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x657c…0cc5backed Under	51c	78.94$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.26	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	45c	58.93$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.31	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4af…0938backed Under	55c	53.93$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.66	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Under	52c	53.27$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.7	220	55%121 W · 99 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	48c	41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.59	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	50c	39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a29…3f4cbacked Under	66c	30.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.25per pick	54cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x74cd…71e1backed Under	51c	29.02$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	40	45%18 W · 22 L	-6.6wins	-0.16per pick	61cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe98b…d3bebacked Under	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	115	53%61 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa916…4f30backed Over	51c	24.75$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	158	41.1%65 W · 93 L	-12.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ac8…becabacked Under	51c	20.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event