NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9fa371bf19e97097e03922230102ef16d593587f895597e60e0f8827a4a32d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 50c | 76,000$38,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,999.96 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa59f…d53cbacked Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…f0a9backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…4741backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…e77ebacked Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 9,074$4,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,493.41 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3033…eda3backed Over | 52c | 8,666$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,166.08 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb78…2d5cbacked Over | 50c | 8,220$4,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 3,980$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,891.62 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361e…e9cbbacked Over | 52c | 3,152$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 1,547$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.59 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.36 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa25…05e8backed Under | 65c | 1,100$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.4 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…f858backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 54c | 469.96$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.08 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 409.09$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Under | 50c | 401.08$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.54 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 4c | 399.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 325.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 49c | 240$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 45c | 219.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…caeabacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…f28dbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Under | 56c | 85.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 44c | 62.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc69…78b3backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 48.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 48.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Over | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 50c | 42.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe490…8e6cbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a29…3f4cbacked Under | 63c | 31.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…b49abacked Over | 69c | 30.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc05a…97f4backed Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 50c | 28.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -12.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 51c | 27.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Heat vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Heat vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Heat vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Heat won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.