NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbad6be7b6c2d7d2239437d8de2eb6ee9012e205e14e5c87ed1bf4c2da3973bdc

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Knicks, Heat
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $57,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $58,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,567 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Knicks	49c	23,683$11,502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,502.15	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcc9…26fbbacked Heat	51c	20,000$10,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,799.99	44	56.8%25 W · 19 L	+7.5wins	+0.17per pick	40cpaid	+26%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdec1…28bdbacked Knicks	50c	10,500$5,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,249.67	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Heat	52c	10,000$5,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,800	1,124	48.6%546 W · 578 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	51c	9,089$4,593 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,495.4	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Heat	50c	4,992$2,516 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,475.65	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Knicks	49c	4,082$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	230	47%108 W · 122 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Knicks	49c	2,545$1,247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,247	240	51.3%123 W · 117 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Knicks	51c	1,969$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	218	52.8%115 W · 103 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Knicks	52c	1,820$946 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$946.4	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Knicks	51c	1,471$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Heat	53c	922.46$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$429.42	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Knicks	38c	852.46$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.35	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed Heat	52c	770$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$369.6	83	51.8%43 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Heat	51c	690$352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.1	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks	46c	670.26$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.4	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat	51c	500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Heat	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	245	56.3%138 W · 107 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks	49c	305$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.45	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Heat	49c	299.99$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153	217	49.3%107 W · 110 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c8…6c62backed Knicks	51c	296.07$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	50cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Heat	50c	230$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Knicks	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Knicks	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	83	44.6%37 W · 46 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Heat	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	96	59.4%57 W · 39 L	+8.6wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Heat	51c	168.22$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.07	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	49c	158.57$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.54	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Knicks	50c	151.45$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.73	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Knicks	52c	134.62$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	239	48.5%116 W · 123 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c9…dfeabacked Heat	55c	103.37$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.44	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	66cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heat	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Heat	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Knicks	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc079…8881backed Heat	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	77	53.2%41 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc535…6047backed Knicks	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	138	34.1%47 W · 91 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38db…d245backed Heat	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	100	58%58 W · 42 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat	50c	96$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a55…fe8bbacked Knicks	50c	79.6$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	165	52.1%86 W · 79 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Heat	50c	74.88$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.44	526	43%226 W · 300 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Heat	51c	68.03$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.03	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Knicks	44c	61.13$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.83	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ff…121cbacked Knicks	49c	59.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.39	68	45.6%31 W · 37 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6794…c10dbacked Heat	52c	59.21$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.42	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Heat	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	311	51.1%159 W · 152 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Knicks	49c	56$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.44	690	49.4%341 W · 349 L	-30.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Heat	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	-12.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Heat	65c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.3	185	49.2%91 W · 94 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Heat	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	484	51.2%248 W · 236 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b2…6127backed Knicks	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	126	39.7%50 W · 76 L	-8.3wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-19%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Knicks	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	237	53.6%127 W · 110 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcba…d962backed Knicks	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	85	43.5%37 W · 48 L	-7.9wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf987…6ea7backed Heat	52c	38.54$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.54	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+3.0wins	+0.16per pick	42cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Heat	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	202	41.1%83 W · 119 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Knicks	38c	38.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	103	45.6%47 W · 56 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb3…ae1ebacked Heat	52c	37.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.14	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+2.6wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+30%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Knicks	50c	36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.82	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Knicks	50c	36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	331	47.4%157 W · 174 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Knicks	51c	35.82$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4254…b8d2backed Heat	52c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+5.0wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa916…4f30backed Knicks	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	158	41.1%65 W · 93 L	-12.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d0e…4049backed Heat	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	242	53.3%129 W · 113 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Heat	52c	26.98$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	327	43.4%142 W · 185 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Knicks	51c	24.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x824d…1271backed Knicks	51c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	133	38.3%51 W · 82 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Heat	51c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.27	189	54.5%103 W · 86 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40a6…a17ebacked Heat	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	121	48.8%59 W · 62 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d66…e2e5backed Knicks	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffcf…ec0ebacked Knicks	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	98	46.9%46 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e6…1dccbacked Heat	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	270	34.8%94 W · 176 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0501…61ecbacked Knicks	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event