Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x830f5ea9a9682908fecb9435d9edf363e313fda6578e0506d036775aa7dfeaa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 74c | 404.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27d3…09c1backed No | 74c | 307.86$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 257.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 171.13$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 49c | 149$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 44c | 142.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 134.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 133.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 30c | 123.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 121$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 32c | 120.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 110.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 102.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 57c | 100.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…f172backed No | 56c | 94.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 69c | 90.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…df71backed Yes | 32c | 83.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 38c | 78.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 59c | 77.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 72.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 68c | 71.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 66c | 70.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 69.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 69.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 61c | 65.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 52c | 65.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 29c | 64.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 62.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 34c | 59.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 58.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 49c | 57.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 52.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 32c | 52.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…69e6backed Yes | 34c | 51.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 67c | 50.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 47.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 44c | 47.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 29c | 47.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 46.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 59c | 43.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…cb37backed Yes | 34c | 43.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed No | 69c | 42.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 70c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 40.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 51c | 40.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 35c | 39.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 37c | 35.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked No | 51c | 33.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 39c | 32.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 42c | 31.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec9f…e57bbacked No | 79c | 30.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 35c | 29.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 56c | 29.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…eb51backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Yes | 76c | 26.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 25.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 66c | 25.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…9232backed Yes | 44c | 23.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 68c | 23.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 76c | 23.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 22.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 17.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.