Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66962ff59ae79a96c46baff7dd2d745c9d0b1a6972d467cb16c190119ee9155e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 500.41$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 354.11$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.8 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 58c | 324.91$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.95 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e5…2dc4backed No | 34c | 323.24$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.11 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 311.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 293.31$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 71c | 242.52$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 79c | 213.72$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 24c | 207.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 207.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 76c | 185.3$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 181.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 135.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 134.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 40c | 125.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 68c | 123.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 120.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 116.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 106$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 37c | 100.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 99.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 37c | 94.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 35c | 89.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…2b3bbacked Yes | 35c | 86.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 41c | 79.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 78.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 50c | 74.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 67c | 71.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 69.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 68.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 36c | 67.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 43c | 62.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 66c | 62.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 61.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 60.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 35c | 60.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 60.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed Yes | 36c | 56.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 28c | 53.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 36c | 51.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 50.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 48.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 37c | 47.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 37c | 41.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 37.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 65c | 36.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 36c | 36.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 37c | 33.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 37c | 31.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 42c | 31.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 40c | 30.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 30.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 72c | 30.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 62c | 29.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 29.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 35c | 28.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 71c | 28.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 25.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 65c | 25.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 64c | 25.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87d…9eddbacked Yes | 40c | 25.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 46c | 24.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 24.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 23.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 59c | 23.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 70c | 20.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 20.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 66c | 19.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 66c | 19.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 19.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 71c | 16.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…af38backed No | 66c | 16.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 15.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.