NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8364e469cb7fe03221c0ac5fc11e19ac61c0bd0ed7b958b256b6a53c0716adcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Celtics, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Nuggets | 52c | 30,000$15,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,499.98 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics | 48c | 18,232$8,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,840.78 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 47c | 9,304$4,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,394.29 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Celtics | 55c | 3,671$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.05 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 45c | 3,484$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Celtics | 48c | 2,203$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.74 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Nuggets | 54c | 728.31$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.71 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Celtics | 54c | 550.01$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.01 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Nuggets | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee68…7352backed Celtics | 56c | 276$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…a799backed Celtics | 56c | 183.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 45c | 181.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…8e44backed Celtics | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Celtics | 53c | 156.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Celtics | 15c | 151.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nuggets | 57c | 130.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Nuggets | 57c | 129.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Celtics | 54c | 93.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x058a…ed5cbacked Nuggets | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Celtics | 48c | 57.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…1417backed Nuggets | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…dea6backed Celtics | 48c | 52.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Celtics | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Celtics | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Celtics | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Nuggets | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Celtics | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Celtics | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…f89cbacked Nuggets | 64c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Celtics | 55c | 19.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. CelticsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.