NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2722d031f9f8d50cb5890e41c68b4502c91e727c3b5fcf44ecacfafd75434f00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 2,937$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.87 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Over | 55c | 1,802$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Over | 10c | 1,689$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.08 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 54c | 1,389$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 1,316$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.64 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 54c | 1,306$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Under | 48c | 1,183$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 52c | 771$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.92 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 53c | 524.53$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 59c | 432.7$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.21 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 44c | 329.92$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.56 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Over | 53c | 292.45$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 275$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Over | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 26c | 246.42$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.3 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ea…2f87backed Over | 74c | 235.97$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…4629backed Over | 56c | 200$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Over | 53c | 173.47$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 54c | 162.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Over | 52c | 160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 129.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 42c | 110.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 56c | 103.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under | 43c | 101.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…f700backed Over | 60c | 100.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236d…5e45backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1a2dbacked Over | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 41c | 58.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Over | 53c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…1baebacked Under | 48c | 38.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e6…d3eebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 41c | 36.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 31.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Under | 47c | 26.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…5817backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 25.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Over | 53c | 23.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. CelticsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.