NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f20dc87af0e69aebe9c5eb6af9748bdbc90fd24963ec371ee3f5f0b1b104db3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d4…1970backed Under | 52c | 11,417$5,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,507.41 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 5,668$2,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,738.08 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…b85dbacked Under | 52c | 5,444$2,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,590.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…a744backed Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…1a5dbacked Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Over | 48c | 2,980$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.4 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 1,931$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.25 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 1,530$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.3 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 1,349$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.48 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 47c | 1,228$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.31 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 871.54$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 48c | 842.14$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.23 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 835.19$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.19 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 816.51$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Under | 55c | 538.18$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.18 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 500$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.33 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Over | 52c | 374$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.48 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 48c | 283$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.84 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 51c | 273.45$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 260.79$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.57 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff6…09bdbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 195.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Over | 50c | 159.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 150.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Over | 47c | 145.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 49c | 123$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 55c | 91.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 50c | 90.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…0417backed Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 340 | 50.3%171 W · 169 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 51c | 82.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed Over | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 268 | 42.9%115 W · 153 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…4758backed Under | 50c | 39.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…bb84backed Over | 50c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Under | 54c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. CelticsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.