TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$150,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,668

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,552 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Over50c119,139$60,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,011.5216846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Under50c51,309$25,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,654.731,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c28,534$14,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,392.539,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under49c9,138$4,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,661.093,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under53c8,000$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,76066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under49c5,105$2,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,601.132,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Under49c4,000$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,06016657.2%95 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under52c3,561$1,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.282,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under49c2,400$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2364,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under50c2,261$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.92,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under47c1,941$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.422,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Under51c1,569$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.639952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over50c1,361$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.128,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under51c1,000$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4954,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under48c949.78$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.323,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Over54c892.6$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.9541553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under48c853.36$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.414,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under49c714$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.142,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under50c600$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3032,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under51c365.8$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.857250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Over53c352$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.5254351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Under53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14159144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over52c284.36$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.622,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Over48c260.42$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540952.1%213 W · 196 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Under53c235.85$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8522953.7%123 W · 106 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Under47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7712650%63 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10084150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under50c198$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over53c184.05$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.552,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde7…6f35backed Under52c170.48$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.661947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under49c138.3$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9888845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Over53c105.39$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8617949.2%88 W · 91 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d2…22fbbacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011348.7%55 W · 58 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf96…62dcbacked Under52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Under40c85$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5191846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aea…5590backed Under51c75.73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1118051.1%92 W · 88 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42bf…30f7backed Under53c69.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.86842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…3f14backed Over48c65.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.258347%39 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over50c63.8$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.91,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dcb…9fdcbacked Under48c63.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.142568%17 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Under48c59.18$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over48c58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8471245.8%326 W · 386 L+1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f40…600dbacked Under51c53.15$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1513945.3%63 W · 76 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce65…6759backed Over51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.513441%55 W · 79 L-16.1wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-30%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over49c45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1459141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over51c40.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.953,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f9…6e1dbacked Over50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-43.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Under51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2218347.5%87 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c2…2f0bbacked Over53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203243.8%14 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb49b…fb8abacked Under48c33.33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over47c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6993849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Over50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x884c…851fbacked Under50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.56232.3%20 W · 42 L-10.7wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-37.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Over51c24.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.330616.7%51 W · 255 L-36.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-37.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.