NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1289dd179ab8f27f31a96437f2b7d940786a6f3b567625133931bf6a4f48224e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 8,886$4,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,621.7 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 8,215$3,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,893.81 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 5,685$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,955.68 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 52c | 4,956$2,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.04 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 51c | 4,946$2,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,424.85 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 3,496$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.19 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 3,209$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 2,588$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.01 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d4…1970backed Under | 53c | 2,354$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.56 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 2,336$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.3 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 8c | 2,125$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.28 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 59c | 1,864$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.76 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 974.18$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.29 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Under | 53c | 567.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.53 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Over | 51c | 475.37$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.44 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…d765backed Over | 48c | 444.54$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.38 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Over | 47c | 427.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Under | 55c | 418$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.15 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Over | 51c | 360$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.7 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 4c | 260.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Over | 52c | 232.8$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 91 | 67%61 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 188.79$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Over | 43c | 137$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…9cc5backed Under | 54c | 124.17$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 47c | 113.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 111.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 280 | 63.6%178 W · 102 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 96.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 52c | 90.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Under | 48c | 89.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 51c | 72.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 70.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4892…27bcbacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Over | 46c | 66.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 46c | 59.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…a7c4backed Over | 49c | 50.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 51c | 50.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…84b0backed Over | 48c | 48.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 193 | 46.6%90 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 48c | 47.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf44e…eb5abacked Under | 60c | 43.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…c817backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 47c | 38.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7422…e383backed Under | 61c | 33.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Over | 50c | 30.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Over | 52c | 30.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Over | 48c | 29.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…851fbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…876dbacked Under | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Nuggets vs. CelticsNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.