Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83eb2a3d139bf1c3c56eee81ca22762fd552f07eb5b8ee198402c9f55f470a23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 31c | 1,562$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.72 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 888.4$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 707.29$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 404$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 309.91$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 33c | 303.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 291$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 239$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 227.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 20c | 200.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 74c | 186.23$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 175.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 150.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 122$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 115$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 114.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 114.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 22c | 111.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 107.73$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 106$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 103.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 31c | 103.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 99.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 80c | 92.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 89.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 82.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 24c | 80.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 71.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…fa13backed Yes | 35c | 69.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 72c | 68.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 68.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 27c | 66.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 66.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 75c | 59.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 25c | 49.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 74c | 49.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…e162backed No | 77c | 43.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 34c | 43.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…3823backed Yes | 25c | 42.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 41.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 76c | 36.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…2fc0backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 36.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 35.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 31c | 33.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 27.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 25.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 77c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 22.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 73c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…3d0fbacked No | 74c | 19.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 64c | 19.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…f7cbbacked No | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 67c | 17.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…dc6dbacked No | 74c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 77c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 77c | 13.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 87°F or below on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.