Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe259901e8f2d46cb4149dd5d5f0a466ceb97a65274dd0d176c9129b82854fab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 2,446$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.82 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 802$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 36c | 376.93$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.19 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Yes | 52c | 374.39$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 359.89$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.7 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 60c | 347.25$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.44 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 44c | 336$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.9 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 325$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 319.21$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 33c | 306.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.26 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 32c | 305.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 69c | 298$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 270.1$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 248.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 211.59$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 199.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 188.43$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60a…3122backed Yes | 42c | 166.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 164$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 153.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 52c | 135.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 134.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 44c | 134$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 129.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 20c | 127$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 114.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 65c | 111.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 97.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 88.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 24c | 87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 30c | 83.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 78.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 71.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 74c | 67.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 65.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 65.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 60.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed Yes | 23c | 56.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed Yes | 41c | 51.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 51.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…864dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 44c | 47.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 44.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 43.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…3823backed Yes | 28c | 42.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 46c | 41.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 40.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…7ce9backed Yes | 54c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 37.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 73c | 36.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…4145backed No | 48c | 35.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 35.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 39c | 35.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 71c | 34.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 79c | 33.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 45c | 33.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 62c | 32.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 63c | 30.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 29.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed Yes | 55c | 28.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 27.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 53c | 26.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 77c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 46c | 25.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…d248backed Yes | 44c | 25.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 23.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…f600backed Yes | 57c | 22.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 22.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 57c | 22.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 69c | 21.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 21.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 74c | 20.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed No | 54c | 20.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 59c | 19.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 60c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 56c | 18.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 14.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 87°F or below on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.