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Ligue 1 · resolved market

Lille OSC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,448
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,805

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,448 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x122b…ac59backed Under1c10,000$100 inLost-$1001338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+373.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec57…0fa7backed Under1c1,500$15 inLost-$15757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+807.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Over74c999.99$740 inWon+$2603342.4%14 W · 19 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-26.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under26c974.5$253 inLost-$253.3734035.9%122 W · 218 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0011…4333backed Over61c651$398 inWon+$253.391291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick67cpaid+46.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under38c610.25$234 inLost-$233.894847.9%23 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+86.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over73c373.15$272 inWon+$100.752147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under27c297.3$80 inLost-$79.835347.6%168 W · 185 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2104…82d7backed Over65c100$65 inWon+$353275%24 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67d6…6562backed Over66c91.15$60 inWon+$31.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd60d…af6bbacked Over61c81.97$50 inWon+$31.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdae…6ad2backed Over72c62.68$45 inWon+$17.682347.8%11 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick66cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under27c57.02$15 inLost-$15.439156.5%221 W · 170 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under36c56.62$21 inLost-$20.621,44141%591 W · 850 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Under38c50$19 inLost-$19650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.