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Ligue 1 · resolved market

Lille OSC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,051 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc291…5d74backed Under42c2,459$1,031 inLost-$1,030.9248934.4%168 W · 321 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc4…3fabbacked Over60c2,208$1,319 inWon+$888.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under47c1,177$555 inLost-$555.1534035.9%122 W · 218 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over58c511.22$297 inWon+$214.097834.6%27 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01af…7bc2backed Under43c204.65$88 inLost-$88475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2440…042dbacked Over60c201.43$120 inWon+$81.44100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under42c178.83$75 inLost-$75.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c1…f4ffbacked Over58c172.41$100 inWon+$72.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked Over61c163.93$100 inWon+$63.93475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over46c149.62$69 inWon+$80.183259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+54.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Under66c116.7$77 inLost-$76.642441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over38c101.45$38 inWon+$63.1215250%76 W · 76 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under40c83.85$33 inLost-$33.235347.6%168 W · 185 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f3…a1a4backed Over50c80$40 inWon+$40366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Over38c78.95$30 inWon+$48.95933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over46c75$34 inWon+$40.754156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce71…54c9backed Over37c70$26 inWon+$44.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x95e9…67b6backed Over50c66$33 inWon+$33250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under42c52.02$22 inLost-$21.851770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa543…d96cbacked Over58c52$30 inWon+$21.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over61c46.84$29 inWon+$18.2713637.5%51 W · 85 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Over47c45$21 inWon+$23.752568%17 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9545…d6f7backed Over57c35.09$20 inWon+$15.093100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe9f…014abacked Under41c34.56$14 inLost-$14.1633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+47.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd151…6431backed Over59c33.9$20 inWon+$13.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.