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Ligue 1 · resolved market

Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Paris Saint-Germain FCof Lille OSC, Paris Saint-Germain FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,309
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,431

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,309 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99f0…9495backed Lille OSC6c6,481$389 inLost-$388.886136.1%22 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Lille OSC55c5,149$2,815 inLost-$2,815.2134035.9%122 W · 218 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43ea…db82backed Paris Saint-Germain FC43c4,582$1,955 inWon+$2,626.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked Lille OSC16c3,120$511 inLost-$511.361553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Lille OSC64c1,068$681 inLost-$680.852441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Lille OSC11c980.81$111 inLost-$111.0848934.4%168 W · 321 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Lille OSC6c749.91$45 inLost-$44.9988644.4%393 W · 493 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Lille OSC13c366.23$48 inLost-$47.6126945%121 W · 148 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Lille OSC6c327.74$20 inLost-$19.6619949.2%98 W · 101 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+23.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Paris Saint-Germain FC70c227.03$159 inWon+$67.5815250%76 W · 76 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Lille OSC9c179$16 inLost-$15.7127646.4%128 W · 148 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lille OSC16c127.37$21 inLost-$20.771,44141%591 W · 850 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked Lille OSC10c101.74$10 inLost-$10.111533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+71.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Lille OSC16c93.75$15 inLost-$1550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Paris Saint-Germain FC70c30$21 inWon+$9.154753.2%25 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.