Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84f1e1584d34b02b40e192cffe4ab54c2c3ef78eeb4020b3f73183480933d86b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 1,100$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.76 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 986.96$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.91 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 62c | 848.04$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.33 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 42c | 781$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.07 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 47c | 639.08$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.37 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 595.84$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 521.11$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 12c | 345.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 49c | 314.63$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.77 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 311.55$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 66c | 298.19$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.48 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 252.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.89 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 54c | 241.6$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.64 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 48c | 219$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…0443backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 54c | 199.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.01 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 190.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.88 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 59c | 190.01$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.05 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 184.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 23c | 166.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 147.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 51c | 144.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 56c | 141.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 136$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 129.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 127.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 127.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 112.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 39c | 101.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 99.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 44c | 93.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 55c | 92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 62c | 88.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 47c | 88.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…62b5backed Yes | 38c | 86.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 86.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 57c | 85.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 54c | 82.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 49c | 82.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed No | 49c | 80.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 43c | 80.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 47c | 78.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 44c | 78.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a3…f04fbacked Yes | 50c | 74.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 73.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed No | 46c | 72.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 70c | 64.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 35c | 63.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 63.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 46c | 63.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 62c | 55.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 44c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 57c | 52.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 24c | 43.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 51c | 42.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 46c | 38.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 46c | 37.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 42c | 36.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 40c | 36.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…9638backed No | 62c | 35.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c3…fc7bbacked Yes | 40c | 28.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 61c | 28.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 49c | 26.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 44c | 26.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 58c | 25.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 57c | 24.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ce…9040backed Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 21.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 57c | 19.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e4…a14ebacked No | 62c | 19.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 73c | 19.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 68c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 73°F or below on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.