Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb07738c52cb15f7add2a2f296d7a3644a14aecd49d96ccacb88b6482d6f5e54f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 78c | 2,127$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 68c | 1,500$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.59 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 1,500$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.79 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,319$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 1,181$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 718.57$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.05 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 80c | 510.49$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.17 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 77c | 407.65$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 63c | 382.99$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.71 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 77c | 332.95$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 24c | 315.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 284$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 265.84$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 27c | 236.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 74c | 221.78$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 18c | 166.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 78c | 164.95$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 28c | 139.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 133.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 72c | 119.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 117.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 71c | 113.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 21c | 104.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 102$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 37c | 92.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 14c | 88.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 29c | 87.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 31c | 85.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked No | 79c | 82.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 67c | 59.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 58.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 25c | 58.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 33c | 58.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 54.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 51.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 32c | 50.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 49.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 49.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 29c | 44.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…0b67backed No | 72c | 41.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbca…dc2cbacked No | 71c | 40.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 77c | 39.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 30c | 39.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 32c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…19d2backed Yes | 31c | 38.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed No | 73c | 37.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 65c | 33.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 73c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 75c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…0a1abacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 22.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 20.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…c023backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 74c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 54c | 19.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 77c | 19.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 64c | 15.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 72c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 73°F or below on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.