NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84f8a19bdf047f2c6f7170a60b046ef719be2cdc9b09da0a5d171c00f4d5cdbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0584…de3ebacked Warriors | 52c | 19,396$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,396.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…0a92backed Warriors | 55c | 19,291$10,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,723.13 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Suns | 49c | 10,385$5,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,089.93 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 46c | 10,247$4,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,717.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Warriors | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Suns | 47c | 7,902$3,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,713.8 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Warriors | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Suns | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Suns | 48c | 2,655$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.2 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 45c | 2,327$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Warriors | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Suns | 47c | 1,254$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.09 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 54c | 961.1$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.85 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors | 51c | 847.32$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.08 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Warriors | 50c | 667.66$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.5 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Suns | 45c | 584.22$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.13 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Warriors | 53c | 573.85$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.7 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Suns | 51c | 556.94$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.04 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Suns | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 48c | 386$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.36 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9515…10d7backed Suns | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Warriors | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Suns | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Suns | 48c | 188.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aed…eb43backed Warriors | 55c | 183.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Suns | 47c | 107.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Warriors | 54c | 60.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Warriors | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Warriors | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Suns | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…7037backed Warriors | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-11.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Under won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Under won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Under won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.