NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0fff519a2475953c8d270442a1d3bbdbd931057093238723156194abbde46c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Warriors, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34c2…07babacked Warriors | 46c | 11,258$5,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,178.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67cb…82ecbacked Suns | 54c | 11,253$6,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,176.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Suns | 55c | 997$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.69 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…e601backed Suns | 64c | 881.02$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.55 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Warriors | 47c | 847.35$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.25 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 51c | 807$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.14 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Warriors | 43c | 728.56$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.28 | 240 | 48.3%116 W · 124 L | -13.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…0375backed Warriors | 46c | 602$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Warriors | 45c | 552.83$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.75 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Suns | 55c | 540$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.8 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Suns | 45c | 539$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.45 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Warriors | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a9…197bbacked Warriors | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…e4f5backed Suns | 54c | 487$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 55c | 387.21$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…f683backed Suns | 54c | 369$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Suns | 53c | 320$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 57c | 196$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Suns | 57c | 163$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9094…8f26backed Suns | 54c | 103$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0e57backed Suns | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Suns | 52c | 62.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df0…8f4ebacked Warriors | 48c | 62.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Warriors | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Warriors | 44c | 59.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Suns | 56c | 59.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 535 | 39.6%212 W · 323 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Warriors | 44c | 43.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf932…f8fabacked Suns | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Warriors | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f2…dfa3backed Suns | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5a…e782backed Suns | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Warriors won
- Suns vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Under won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Under won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Under won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.