NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96423e4e235751329b332fc71d04bde7e07522a9c1f5b3cfc8664683700be5a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Suns | 49c | 15,169$7,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,432.69 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Warriors | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,350 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Suns | 50c | 9,098$4,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,549.17 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 49c | 8,239$4,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,213.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Warriors | 46c | 3,670$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.8 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Suns | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Warriors | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.99 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Warriors | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.63 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors | 46c | 1,405$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.53 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Suns | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Suns | 53c | 1,152$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.83 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f7…fb38backed Suns | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Suns | 49c | 999.83$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.91 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Suns | 52c | 944.75$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.84 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Warriors | 48c | 914.8$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.6 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Warriors | 48c | 906$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.12 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Suns | 52c | 902$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.04 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Suns | 50c | 588.06$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.03 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 46c | 493$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Warriors | 48c | 377.44$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.27 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Suns | 52c | 377.44$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.27 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Warriors | 51c | 368.63$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.63 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a50ebacked Suns | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Warriors | 51c | 309.37$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.59 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Warriors | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Warriors | 44c | 279$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.24 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e194backed Suns | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Warriors | 48c | 269.77$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.28 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Suns | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Warriors | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…f3dbbacked Suns | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Suns | 50c | 183.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 53c | 178.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Suns | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed Suns | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 463 | 48.4%224 W · 239 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Warriors | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Warriors | 52c | 148.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed Warriors | 51c | 138.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Suns | 51c | 129.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Suns | 55c | 129.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c4…09a3backed Suns | 51c | 128.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Suns | 49c | 126$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a93…3257backed Suns | 55c | 114.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Suns | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Suns | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 197 | 41.6%82 W · 115 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Suns | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Suns | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Warriors | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…da66backed Suns | 51c | 82.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…94a4backed Warriors | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a4…0ea6backed Suns | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Suns | 50c | 67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Warriors | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…77eabacked Suns | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…862dbacked Warriors | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Warriors | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Suns | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Suns | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed Suns | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Suns | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Suns | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…61edbacked Warriors | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…ed1dbacked Warriors | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…28a7backed Warriors | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Warriors | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x658a…3b89backed Suns | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2337…3a2cbacked Warriors | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc30…197abacked Suns | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…d706backed Suns | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…eb32backed Warriors | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Suns | 50c | 22.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Suns | 50c | 22.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Suns | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…799ebacked Warriors | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 177 | 42.4%75 W · 102 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-11.5)Suns won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Warriors won
- Suns vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Suns vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Under won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Under won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Under won
- Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.