MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84fd33a8b3af27668ad580f3e37a96df8146e075ecda15bcc29a5be1e7850193
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 25,140$15,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,487.84 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 14,956$7,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,477.79 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…6289backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 14,420$7,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,034.27 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Chicago Cubs | 73c | 11,597$8,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,110.67 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 21c | 10,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 8,125$4,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,052.84 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 5,873$2,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,747.12 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Chicago Cubs | 31c | 4,185$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,907 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 2,849$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.56 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 2,631$1,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 2,487$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.24 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Chicago Cubs | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Chicago Cubs | 63c | 1,270$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.62 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 1,144$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.61 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 1,100$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 1,078$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.83 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 1,046$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.84 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 976.3$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.91 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 951.15$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.53 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 758$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7490…f3efbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 616.91$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 604.62$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.53 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 80c | 446.13$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.41 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 418.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.22 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…0d0dbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 262.5$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.63 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…fec8backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 172$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Chicago Cubs | 78c | 162.46$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 151$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 133$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 157 | 57.3%90 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 110.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 107.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 99.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 67.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 66.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec8…fd7bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 41.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 40.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…9280backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32a…9862backed Chicago Cubs | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4816…ee65backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.