NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Heat

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85456ce2a34c58538cfc49f6f8b1548d6522a21de7708db4e06e6cb8211d84e3

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Raptors, Heat
Resolved: Dec 13, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $390,803
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $375,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $390,803 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9eea…281dbacked Raptors	0c	39,596$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.63	265	47.9%127 W · 138 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Heat	67c	26,439$17,682 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,756.57	498	49.4%246 W · 252 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Raptors	10c	23,341$2,240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,239.57	228	32%73 W · 155 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Raptors	16c	22,356$3,475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,475.43	251	38.6%97 W · 154 L	-11.4wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8a…2007backed Raptors	19c	10,035$1,907 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,906.59	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…9340backed Raptors	19c	10,031$1,906 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,905.87	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad8c…4fedbacked Raptors	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Raptors	21c	9,198$1,928 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,927.75	428	27.3%117 W · 311 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7967…f4a0backed Raptors	19c	8,147$1,548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,547.88	62	50%31 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadef…d0acbacked Raptors	21c	7,806$1,654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,654.28	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	58cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e12…141ebacked Raptors	16c	6,550$1,023 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,023	109	21.1%23 W · 86 L	-10.5wins	-0.10per pick	31cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75da…4688backed Raptors	35c	6,544$2,306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,305.94	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Raptors	1c	6,017$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.38	1,035	1.1%11 W · 1,024 L	-24.4wins	-0.02per pick	3cpaid	-90.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7685…e082backed Raptors	1c	5,848$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.35	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+102.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Raptors	22c	5,709$1,236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,236.14	1,164	49.6%577 W · 587 L	+7.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0e…113dbacked Heat	78c	5,002$3,899 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,103.34	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	60cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Raptors	25c	4,362$1,076 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,076	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	+85.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Raptors	19c	4,013$767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$767.33	1,782	28%499 W · 1,283 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb90d…7db5backed Heat	80c	3,112$2,489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$622.3	309	54%167 W · 142 L	-8.1wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Raptors	18c	3,052$558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.38	1,316	50.5%664 W · 652 L	+42.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Raptors	20c	2,967$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.06	777	45%350 W · 427 L	+6.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed Raptors	40c	2,942$1,183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,182.6	150	56.7%85 W · 65 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Heat	66c	2,897$1,915 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$981.79	360	57.5%207 W · 153 L	-14.7wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x217b…0dc0backed Raptors	20c	2,725$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed Raptors	19c	2,698$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.55	139	20.1%28 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors	29c	2,670$775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775.11	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed Raptors	20c	2,250$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x422a…fe4dbacked Raptors	20c	2,050$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Raptors	8c	2,047$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.2	191	37.7%72 W · 119 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ce…a6abbacked Raptors	18c	2,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	84	42.9%36 W · 48 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bad…74a7backed Raptors	19c	2,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.97	152	34.9%53 W · 99 L	-11.2wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c16…6bd1backed Raptors	32c	1,892$607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$607.13	35	68.6%24 W · 11 L	+3.8wins	+0.11per pick	58cpaid	+16%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d0f…da3abacked Raptors	22c	1,850$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.1	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-42%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Raptors	20c	1,760$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.03	376	27.9%105 W · 271 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1875…eb5ebacked Raptors	29c	1,493$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.3	62	29%18 W · 44 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	0%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Raptors	24c	1,238$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.3	279	39.8%111 W · 168 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Raptors	19c	1,171$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.76	469	28.4%133 W · 336 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Raptors	19c	1,018$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.38	1,090	35.8%390 W · 700 L	+40.1wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9542…4295backed Heat	79c	1,007$796 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.51	59	47.5%28 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbec2…826bbacked Raptors	23c	1,000$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	58	20.7%12 W · 46 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc7…3a04backed Raptors	40c	1,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	82	29.3%24 W · 58 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Heat	64c	957.31$608 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$349.03	615	32.2%198 W · 417 L	-21.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0463…ac35backed Raptors	15c	951.33$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.71	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.16per pick	40cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Raptors	18c	908.31$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.83	753	47.5%358 W · 395 L	+10.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Heat	76c	875.37$662 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.99	71	49.3%35 W · 36 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Raptors	11c	865.16$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.17	1,602	11.8%189 W · 1,413 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16fd…5b47backed Raptors	18c	845.81$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c53…c8b5backed Raptors	20c	845$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Heat	80c	837.08$668 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.92	723	41.2%298 W · 425 L	+23.0wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ea…e341backed Raptors	27c	809.34$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e79…56dcbacked Heat	80c	777.98$622 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.6	144	38.9%56 W · 88 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb94…d871backed Raptors	20c	750.38$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.12	196	50%98 W · 98 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec5c…ce46backed Raptors	27c	743.77$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	451	35%158 W · 293 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Raptors	48c	710.74$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344	111	35.1%39 W · 72 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecb8…c405backed Raptors	21c	709.45$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Raptors	23c	705.11$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.67	1,554	37.3%579 W · 975 L	-48.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05d7…676fbacked Raptors	15c	669.96$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.49	96	25%24 W · 72 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ea…969bbacked Raptors	10c	658.91$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.89	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed9c…002fbacked Heat	80c	650$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7618…ff2cbacked Raptors	20c	650$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x163e…d18cbacked Heat	72c	644.63$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.94	82	46.3%38 W · 44 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Raptors	20c	625$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	563	48.5%273 W · 290 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d75…4310backed Raptors	20c	625$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ceb…0c87backed Heat	48c	607.1$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.69	72	51.4%37 W · 35 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x873c…ac48backed Raptors	19c	585.49$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.5	258	33.7%87 W · 171 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b9…6a5ebacked Heat	55c	584.1$321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.85	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x255b…7284backed Raptors	19c	554.95$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.44	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Raptors	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-3.5wins	-0.16per pick	48cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x273b…37fcbacked Raptors	19c	500$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-31%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf51…2037backed Raptors	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ad…5176backed Raptors	18c	500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	304	40.5%123 W · 181 L	+12.4wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b9a…36a0backed Heat	80c	500$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7da9…fbcfbacked Raptors	5c	499.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ae…4876backed Raptors	20c	499.96$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.95	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf848…03abbacked Raptors	20c	481$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.2	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.16per pick	39cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Raptors	31c	477.92$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.15	613	45.5%279 W · 334 L	-8.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd2…5e2abacked Raptors	21c	434.31$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.71	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	-6.5wins	-0.14per pick	42cpaid	-38%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Heat	80c	432.84$346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.57	656	42.5%279 W · 377 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Heat	80c	400$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	337	52.5%177 W · 160 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Raptors	19c	399.98$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	220	53.6%118 W · 102 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed Raptors	26c	397.36$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.06	398	43.5%173 W · 225 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8b…c2d0backed Heat	70c	377.28$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.23	112	49.1%55 W · 57 L	+5.5wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08a8…adcebacked Raptors	54c	370.37$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	163	41.1%67 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fba…bdbdbacked Raptors	52c	343.24$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.24	122	54.9%67 W · 55 L	-7.5wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Raptors	25c	320.82$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	481	37.2%179 W · 302 L	-15.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aab…9c4cbacked Heat	57c	300$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130	296	61.5%182 W · 114 L	+10.6wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Raptors	18c	299.95$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.99	1,197	46.7%559 W · 638 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Heat	80c	287.99$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.6	853	47.9%409 W · 444 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa7…05e2backed Raptors	36c	277.66$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dad…0668backed Raptors	20c	270$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x338b…97b3backed Heat	59c	258.17$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.17	213	38%81 W · 132 L	-12.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1772…bb32backed Raptors	20c	255.9$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.18	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf33…4eacbacked Raptors	19c	251.65$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.5	64	26.6%17 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd989…29f4backed Raptors	10c	251.2$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.30per pick	47cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfac…414fbacked Raptors	19c	246.93$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.92	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf6…6476backed Heat	80c	246$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.2	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8167…3051backed Raptors	4c	245.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x904b…d52fbacked Raptors	30c	240$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542e…e88ebacked Heat	73c	239.85$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.28	149	41.6%62 W · 87 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cb…579fbacked Raptors	20c	232.2$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.44	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Raptors vs. Heat

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market