Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x854be4bfe0485ef2378856c735bd93d734ce95f6c7c2d307fd40120519103080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 3c | 15,166$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.35 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,617$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 1c | 7,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…107bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,595$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.64 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 5,536$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…2c91backed Yes | 1c | 4,461$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 4c | 3,815$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.61 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 2,777$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 1c | 2,428$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 3c | 2,207$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…51ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,631$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +247.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 1c | 1,535$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe05…cbb2backed Yes | 3c | 1,529$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,235$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 12c | 939.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.12 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…dec6backed Yes | 3c | 910.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 901.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1d…2d6fbacked Yes | 3c | 899.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 30c | 897.71$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.85 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 4c | 815.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9611…1c01backed Yes | 2c | 800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 710.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 677.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 48c | 259.48$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9138…0690backed Yes | 5c | 242$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f4…b695backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7720…f3bbbacked Yes | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 48c | 65.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 52c | 40.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?this page
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Yes won
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.