TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Virtus Bologna vs. Olympiacos B.C.

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Olympiacos B.C.of Virtus Bologna, Olympiacos B.C.
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,722
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,522

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,722 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac75…1319backed Virtus Bologna44c18,490$8,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,125.671127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Virtus Bologna18c7,278$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.964037.5%15 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Olympiacos B.C.56c6,970$3,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,066.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf44…4040backed Virtus Bologna40c6,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Olympiacos B.C.58c4,100$2,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7222055%11 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Olympiacos B.C.64c3,925$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.8413650%68 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Olympiacos B.C.59c3,565$2,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.1354251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Olympiacos B.C.56c2,143$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.862347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Olympiacos B.C.56c1,769$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.33560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Olympiacos B.C.61c1,582$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.057159.2%42 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Olympiacos B.C.60c1,517$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.1714847.3%70 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Olympiacos B.C.76c1,446$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.2436939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b0…60e7backed Olympiacos B.C.58c1,340$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f2…da9cbacked Olympiacos B.C.56c1,248$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Olympiacos B.C.58c1,216$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.062365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Olympiacos B.C.58c1,182$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.4713548.9%66 W · 69 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x586d…c5dcbacked Olympiacos B.C.56c1,067$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.461250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Olympiacos B.C.60c980.99$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.41369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+24.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Olympiacos B.C.56c967.86$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.865949.2%29 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ed…2b21backed Virtus Bologna13c957.96$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Virtus Bologna40c729.78$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.943060%18 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Olympiacos B.C.58c694.83$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.832965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d72…02d0backed Virtus Bologna44c682.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Virtus Bologna42c650$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2735040%20 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Virtus Bologna39c643$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.778644.2%38 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Virtus Bologna39c624.76$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.252825%7 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-45.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Olympiacos B.C.59c522.93$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.5410945.9%50 W · 59 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Virtus Bologna39c482$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.988453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e6f…eb72backed Olympiacos B.C.61c440.99$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.991968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Virtus Bologna19c438.42$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Virtus Bologna33c418.79$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8914542.1%61 W · 84 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Olympiacos B.C.57c402.49$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.8227557.5%158 W · 117 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aea…ec91backed Virtus Bologna42c400$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Olympiacos B.C.58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1262544%11 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf341…b5f6backed Virtus Bologna18c279.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Virtus Bologna40c248.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Virtus Bologna42c238.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1fc…bcdfbacked Olympiacos B.C.56c225.96$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Olympiacos B.C.57c224.64$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2331446.2%145 W · 169 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed Olympiacos B.C.63c187.98$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd12f…e80dbacked Olympiacos B.C.65c170.95$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.134946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Olympiacos B.C.60c166$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed Olympiacos B.C.72c164.72$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.91850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb939…ed05backed Olympiacos B.C.61c146.98$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed4…8c3cbacked Virtus Bologna43c139.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602540%10 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8d8…e72dbacked Virtus Bologna18c134.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.634438.6%17 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Olympiacos B.C.55c123.09$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3913147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Olympiacos B.C.58c120.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.69875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd3a…9993backed Olympiacos B.C.56c108.39$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+135%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Olympiacos B.C.58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9fa6…0b3bbacked Olympiacos B.C.60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick45cpaid+144.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Olympiacos B.C.73c94.91$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2412268.9%84 W · 38 L+15.5wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+19.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf292…1cc7backed Olympiacos B.C.67c88.56$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.811931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Olympiacos B.C.56c87.93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.69785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick58cpaid+55.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bbe…03c5backed Olympiacos B.C.58c86.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e3…9efebacked Olympiacos B.C.61c75.42$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bc8…1885backed Virtus Bologna40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Virtus Bologna38c73.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7722231.5%70 W · 152 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Olympiacos B.C.56c72.41$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.868037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d9e…e1dbbacked Virtus Bologna45c59.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed Olympiacos B.C.61c57.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f88…a2a2backed Virtus Bologna45c56.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb54…54ebbacked Virtus Bologna46c55.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x547a…e99cbacked Virtus Bologna46c53.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd38…fe22backed Virtus Bologna39c51.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe1…ee62backed Olympiacos B.C.56c50.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8093…6a1bbacked Olympiacos B.C.56c50.03$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe21…2f9cbacked Virtus Bologna32c49.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46c6…e4adbacked Olympiacos B.C.56c49.8$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc693…1492backed Olympiacos B.C.56c48.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc68…528cbacked Olympiacos B.C.62c47.45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bc…b44bbacked Virtus Bologna39c47.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…fb2ebacked Olympiacos B.C.62c44.54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a7…5829backed Virtus Bologna46c44.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d82…fc26backed Olympiacos B.C.56c42.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd466…c7bcbacked Olympiacos B.C.56c42.44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b01…8f47backed Virtus Bologna39c41.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea5…cc71backed Virtus Bologna37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4775…c448backed Olympiacos B.C.56c39.91$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2df9…6746backed Olympiacos B.C.62c39.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b90…9bdcbacked Olympiacos B.C.56c39.14$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7a…0962backed Olympiacos B.C.62c38.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee46…8ec9backed Virtus Bologna40c37.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fc…4c1cbacked Virtus Bologna40c37.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3657…6cd3backed Olympiacos B.C.56c36.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+75.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29d9…1d94backed Olympiacos B.C.62c36.8$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d27…1598backed Virtus Bologna46c34.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6707…0ca9backed Virtus Bologna39c33.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4abf…6f64backed Virtus Bologna40c32.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a2…3ce5backed Virtus Bologna43c32.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5353…6ed7backed Olympiacos B.C.62c31.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd3…8e5ebacked Virtus Bologna40c30.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6103…cf8bbacked Virtus Bologna45c29.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8215…8100backed Olympiacos B.C.56c28.73$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x657c…c6d0backed Virtus Bologna40c28.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd5f…285dbacked Olympiacos B.C.58c28.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5499…f66bbacked Olympiacos B.C.58c28.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x581b…f083backed Olympiacos B.C.56c27.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a97…5c2cbacked Virtus Bologna40c26.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd51…b5b7backed Olympiacos B.C.62c25.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.