Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x856417a18330b10f93978ba4f0ae2925a2612df5f0af73aa52f5f7cc8e6bf68c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: L1ga Teamof South America Rejects, L1ga Team
Resolved: Apr 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,308

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,018 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked South America Rejects	58c	5,908$3,443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,442.84	1,066	57%608 W · 458 L	+52.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed South America Rejects	63c	4,147$2,627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,627.42	457	50.8%232 W · 225 L	+14.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed South America Rejects	36c	3,775$1,364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,363.8	470	46.6%219 W · 251 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked South America Rejects	63c	3,578$2,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,254.24	944	42.3%399 W · 545 L	-20.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed L1ga Team	31c	3,091$945 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,145.5	568	52.5%298 W · 270 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked L1ga Team	36c	2,892$1,035 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,856.77	800	56%448 W · 352 L	+23.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked South America Rejects	52c	2,828$1,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,469.7	96	50%48 W · 48 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed L1ga Team	41c	2,380$972 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,408.43	544	45.8%249 W · 295 L	-10.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked L1ga Team	38c	2,362$895 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,467.36	271	43.5%118 W · 153 L	-10.1wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked L1ga Team	39c	2,046$798 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,248.29	1,197	59.2%709 W · 488 L	+63.9wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed South America Rejects	66c	953.44$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627.12	1,272	45%572 W · 700 L	-40.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed L1ga Team	44c	843.4$371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$472.31	474	50.8%241 W · 233 L	+16.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed South America Rejects	58c	837.32$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.47	189	54%102 W · 87 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed L1ga Team	68c	776.41$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.38	656	25.6%168 W · 488 L	+14.7wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed South America Rejects	75c	728.59$547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546.69	617	45.7%282 W · 335 L	-12.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed L1ga Team	36c	721.23$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.1	259	35.5%92 W · 167 L	-13.7wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed L1ga Team	31c	703.67$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$486.39	390	42.1%164 W · 226 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked L1ga Team	35c	657.84$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430.29	292	40.4%118 W · 174 L	+8.4wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31ab…20e9backed South America Rejects	60c	612.03$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.53	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked L1ga Team	74c	589.12$436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.52	866	59.6%516 W · 350 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked L1ga Team	39c	579.21$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.39	200	43.5%87 W · 113 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed L1ga Team	42c	569.72$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330.44	504	49.2%248 W · 256 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed South America Rejects	62c	566.3$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.1	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa042…5539backed L1ga Team	42c	557.46$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$321.06	174	54%94 W · 80 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed South America Rejects	10c	525.46$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.52	305	34.4%105 W · 200 L	-14.3wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked L1ga Team	75c	500$375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125	338	67.8%229 W · 109 L	+16.0wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked L1ga Team	32c	499.99$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.99	562	43.2%243 W · 319 L	+14.0wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked South America Rejects	69c	490.03$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.58	268	43.7%117 W · 151 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed L1ga Team	31c	483.87$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.87	499	52.9%264 W · 235 L	+14.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed South America Rejects	60c	478.06$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.65	2,828	43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L	-39.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed South America Rejects	69c	473.42$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.74	714	54.5%389 W · 325 L	+55.6wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b15…a031backed South America Rejects	68c	460.73$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.27	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xeda6…84c5backed South America Rejects	38c	433.26$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.42	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.21per pick	41cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked South America Rejects	68c	432.8$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.24	366	54.1%198 W · 168 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked L1ga Team	35c	398.86$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.55	153	42.5%65 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked South America Rejects	56c	343.98$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.78	907	56.1%509 W · 398 L	+16.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed South America Rejects	65c	342.65$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.72	150	64.7%97 W · 53 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked L1ga Team	45c	314.92$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.64	670	43.3%290 W · 380 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f5…40d7backed L1ga Team	37c	299.06$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.4	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed South America Rejects	47c	283.46$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.25	306	47.4%145 W · 161 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a9f…38a2backed South America Rejects	70c	280.57$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.4	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked L1ga Team	40c	274.17$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.16	1,275	33.5%427 W · 848 L	-15.6wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed South America Rejects	48c	254.69$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.54	1,797	55.8%1,003 W · 794 L	+37.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed South America Rejects	60c	204.45$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.08	483	52.4%253 W · 230 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed South America Rejects	49c	193.88$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	285	44.9%128 W · 157 L	-7.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed South America Rejects	53c	187.73$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.41	209	39.2%82 W · 127 L	-10.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0b0…ab95backed South America Rejects	61c	180.2$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.92	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	55cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d4c…935ebacked South America Rejects	24c	147.3$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.35	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-6.1wins	-0.23per pick	43cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed South America Rejects	34c	132.29$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.01	1,255	49.6%623 W · 632 L	+20.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed South America Rejects	61c	126.01$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.87	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed South America Rejects	55c	123.84$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.11	174	43.7%76 W · 98 L	-11.2wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x41da…c470backed L1ga Team	34c	122.56$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.89	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.15per pick	47cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed L1ga Team	54c	118.13$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.67	273	57.1%156 W · 117 L	+9.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked South America Rejects	62c	112.78$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.45	1,270	45.1%573 W · 697 L	-10.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked South America Rejects	60c	102.48$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.17	666	48.6%324 W · 342 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed South America Rejects	40c	101$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.13	653	37.2%243 W · 410 L	-15.1wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked L1ga Team	38c	95.02$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.2	612	56%343 W · 269 L	+13.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed L1ga Team	42c	88.03$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.36	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed South America Rejects	46c	74.26$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.07	864	51.7%447 W · 417 L	+20.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked L1ga Team	49c	69$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.37	2,367	47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L	+17.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9332…a3dbbacked South America Rejects	15c	68.85$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	760	48.6%369 W · 391 L	+26.2wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed South America Rejects	63c	64.87$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.87	345	61.2%211 W · 134 L	+17.7wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2494…17b3backed South America Rejects	60c	64.55$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.05	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61c4…c69dbacked South America Rejects	60c	64.36$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.44	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x710b…93b0backed L1ga Team	30c	60$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	122	60.7%74 W · 48 L	+10.7wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0fa8…d75fbacked L1ga Team	53c	52.28$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.81	55	34.5%19 W · 36 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked South America Rejects	68c	51.8$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.22	199	51.8%103 W · 96 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked South America Rejects	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	545	48.4%264 W · 281 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3621…2d2dbacked South America Rejects	24c	51.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	55	58.2%32 W · 23 L	+7.6wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x14ed…6584backed South America Rejects	59c	50.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.8	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked South America Rejects	26c	47.78$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	641	23.4%150 W · 491 L	-18.6wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked South America Rejects	43c	46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.78	690	33.3%230 W · 460 L	-27.9wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…2f43backed L1ga Team	33c	37.81$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.33	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6795…4a4cbacked L1ga Team	52c	37.01$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.58	132	46.2%61 W · 71 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed South America Rejects	65c	35$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.75	1,013	45.5%461 W · 552 L	-46.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed South America Rejects	63c	34$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	378	51.1%193 W · 185 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed L1ga Team	40c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	969	42.8%415 W · 554 L	-19.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed L1ga Team	39c	29.96$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.17	1,034	16.3%169 W · 865 L	-158.1wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-51%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked L1ga Team	41c	26.62$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.84	245	18.8%46 W · 199 L	-31.2wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-46%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe727…f6e1backed South America Rejects	60c	24.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.71	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed South America Rejects	71c	18.58$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.11	208	58.7%122 W · 86 L	+22.1wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0xdadd…5721backed South America Rejects	59c	18.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.82	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-2.7wins	-0.18per pick	58cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs L1ga Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group BSouth America Rejects won
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
Game Handicap: SAR (-1.5) vs L1ga Team (+1.5)L1ga Team won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event