Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: China PR (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x856e8538fd9ca2548303f123cd78215acc612c6ddf97a022bbbe224ba13c1637
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thailandof China PR, Thailand
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed China PR | 5c | 7,738$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.48 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed China PR | 7c | 3,346$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.71 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0d…d28dbacked Thailand | 77c | 1,303$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed China PR | 21c | 1,044$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.87 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…77e8backed China PR | 29c | 887.93$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked China PR | 25c | 799.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Thailand | 72c | 687.13$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.56 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15d…0fa4backed China PR | 16c | 515.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x888c…19f9backed Thailand | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Thailand | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ed…41b2backed Thailand | 77c | 256.3$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked China PR | 23c | 256.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed China PR | 24c | 239.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…f866backed China PR | 25c | 224.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10c…e7e2backed China PR | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22bc…b0b2backed China PR | 26c | 194.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked China PR | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 35.3%88 W · 161 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc7…43e5backed China PR | 29c | 137.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 30.4%42 W · 96 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…535dbacked Thailand | 74c | 135.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 273 | 27.5%75 W · 198 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed China PR | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…f52ebacked China PR | 26c | 100.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 177 | 38.4%68 W · 109 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Thailand | 75c | 95.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked China PR | 23c | 93.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed China PR | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 373 | 23.1%86 W · 287 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed China PR | 26c | 73.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed China PR | 22c | 68.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…6ef0backed Thailand | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 168 | 61.3%103 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed China PR | 27c | 60.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e73…9150backed Thailand | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Thailand | 76c | 50.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…d32cbacked China PR | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 147 | 37.4%55 W · 92 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Thailand | 73c | 49.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…9878backed Thailand | 76c | 44.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Thailand | 76c | 41.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked China PR | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…700abacked Thailand | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cda…dc61backed Thailand | 76c | 35.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3267…da9ebacked Thailand | 76c | 28.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Thailand | 76c | 26.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e47…0b4ebacked Thailand | 77c | 23.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Thailand | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 379 | 50.1%190 W · 189 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…40b0backed Thailand | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…d1d3backed Thailand | 76c | 16.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: China PR (-1.5)this page
- China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5Under won
- China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5Under won
- China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5Under won
- China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5Under won
- China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 4.5Under won
- China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: China PR (-2.5)Thailand won
- Spread: Thailand (-1.5)China PR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.