NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8578fa50959bc50a2de0d8ade2704000f255625d0fc90964dfccc62a5997c154
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 19c | 618.74$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.53 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08d…9ccfbacked Under | 18c | 491.81$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…fadfbacked Under | 24c | 349.49$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Over | 78c | 299.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 15c | 262.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked Under | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Over | 77c | 129.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8876…8963backed Under | 26c | 114.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed Under | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 72c | 98.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 21c | 74.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over | 74c | 73.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 77c | 48.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed Over | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 75c | 31.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 72c | 25.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 79c | 23.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 75c | 22.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 75c | 22.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 75c | 22.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 75c | 22.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac3…c2b6backed Over | 75c | 15.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5this page
- Sabres vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.