NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x858fbe9c0a4f7f87d204e6ec27ac4b1e216dc8586a3a4e1fbc78ee2ecd29579a

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $84,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $85,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,635 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbc43…96d3backed Over	49c	60,000$29,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29,599.97	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e42…ae5abacked Under	51c	17,169$8,756 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,412.63	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e3…4521backed Under	51c	16,086$8,204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,882.27	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9e5…0abbbacked Under	51c	10,196$5,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,996.08	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	50c	9,025$4,508 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,517.15	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3860…0efcbacked Under	51c	4,205$2,144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,060.21	129	50.4%65 W · 64 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Under	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500	339	45.1%153 W · 186 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under	49c	2,600$1,276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,324	807	37.7%304 W · 503 L	-33.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Under	51c	2,588$1,320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,268.24	183	43.7%80 W · 103 L	-11.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	49c	2,147$1,059 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,059.27	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Over	52c	2,111$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	81	53.1%43 W · 38 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	50c	1,600$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$800	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over	51c	1,014$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.89	212	47.2%100 W · 112 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	617	40.7%251 W · 366 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Under	48c	1,000$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520	379	44.3%168 W · 211 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under	51c	1,000$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490	492	46.3%228 W · 264 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Over	50c	942.94$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.47	238	50%119 W · 119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Over	51c	917.91$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.13	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	50c	753.45$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.73	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1a55…fd0dbacked Under	49c	408.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.16	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	47c	220.94$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.1	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	50c	203.73$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.87	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Under	51c	118.37$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	51c	110$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.9	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Under	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	175	45.7%80 W · 95 L	-9.2wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8d4…3691backed Under	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-2.5wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Over	51c	88.24$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	503	51.5%259 W · 244 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Under	48c	80$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.6	451	46.1%208 W · 243 L	-10.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Under	51c	78.19$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.44	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2d…e660backed Over	52c	67.02$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.85	113	43.4%49 W · 64 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Under	48c	65.83$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.23	508	41.7%212 W · 296 L	-11.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x050f…6b27backed Over	50c	65$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.3	77	23.4%18 W · 59 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Under	51c	49.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.02	400	48.3%193 W · 207 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	436	47.9%209 W · 227 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Under	50c	39.98$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.99	260	43.8%114 W · 146 L	-15.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b0f…e949backed Under	51c	26.87$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	100	46%46 W · 54 L	-6.1wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bulls vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event