NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85993398af035211f27b9cfc4b03b53d3b0a5901298ed140c79551ab27ac47fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Lakers | 39c | 982.74$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.47 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Knicks | 53c | 980.12$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.86 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…f849backed Knicks | 55c | 897.98$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.62 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lakers | 42c | 361.06$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.66 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Knicks | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Knicks | 58c | 233.69$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.54 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Knicks | 61c | 211.73$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.34 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Lakers | 43c | 192.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.73 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Lakers | 40c | 175$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Lakers | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Knicks | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Lakers | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Knicks | 60c | 114.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…8d2dbacked Lakers | 40c | 98.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Lakers | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc897…f3b3backed Lakers | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Lakers vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Lakers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Under won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.