NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe99080c41ca6982d0a4394be222da3b80bb88f212accb2961d8d7e1bff626c27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Lakers | 16c | 1,600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 51c | 1,250$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks | 48c | 1,231$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.25 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Knicks | 80c | 734.32$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.86 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 51c | 677.53$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.54 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Knicks | 49c | 616.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.33 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Lakers | 53c | 565.9$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Knicks | 47c | 565.23$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.77 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Knicks | 49c | 409.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.02 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed Knicks | 80c | 389.58$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Knicks | 53c | 339.9$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.12 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…fa51backed Lakers | 46c | 214.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Lakers | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Lakers | 52c | 195.62$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Lakers | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Lakers | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Knicks | 48c | 104.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Knicks | 48c | 102.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Lakers | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Knicks | 80c | 98.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Knicks | 49c | 68.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Lakers | 50c | 63.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1c…c085backed Lakers | 54c | 62.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Lakers | 52c | 44.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…6102backed Knicks | 50c | 38.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb275…c76fbacked Lakers | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Knicks | 48c | 28.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks | 50c | 20.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a6abacked Knicks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)this page
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Lakers vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Lakers vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Under won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.