Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 4 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8681e2700f879ca367d4b49f6ed268921fcf9166b108fd87d7b4dee5db84a19a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe653…4594backed Yes | 20c | 5,860$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.55 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 13c | 2,471$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.5 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,400$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.7 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 17c | 2,108$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.37 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f3afbacked Yes | 19c | 1,890$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 80c | 1,203$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.14 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,113$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 6c | 1,090$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 7c | 1,060$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed Yes | 13c | 883.81$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 864.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 22c | 797.59$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.41 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 8c | 766.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 5c | 724.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 13c | 539.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d1…40c3backed Yes | 5c | 450.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…f62ebacked Yes | 14c | 381.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 13c | 344$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 15c | 305.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec53…6012backed No | 77c | 184.77$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 26c | 163.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…b468backed Yes | 15c | 149.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e0…8817backed Yes | 17c | 145.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 15c | 109.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…1765backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +50%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…26d6backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 18c | 95.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…5962backed Yes | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 22c | 77.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…a44ebacked Yes | 17c | 65.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd313…c026backed No | 73c | 34.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 4 2026?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 4 2026?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $135 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 Week of May 4 2026?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of May 4 2026?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of May 4 2026?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of May 4 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.