Europa Conference League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x869b364e810488624919afc3683381b5cbf3da46c7f66112c8145fcf23cebb1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 8,785$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.75 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 13c | 4,049$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.82 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 8c | 2,213$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.43 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 10c | 955$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 19cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 14c | 863.92$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 11c | 833.3$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 12c | 767$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 74c | 726.14$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe77…8166backed Over | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 38c | 342.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 9c | 328.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Under | 69c | 290.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 71c | 220.55$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bd…978cbacked Over | 11c | 217.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 11c | 200.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 72c | 185$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1806…5234backed Over | 41c | 159.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 13c | 115.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…b2a6backed Over | 32c | 63.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 23c | 60.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…1ddabacked Over | 34c | 57.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 28c | 36.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Under | 63c | 31.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +8.4wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…9886backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 63c | 20.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.